At first glance, Bitcoin’s most recent rally appears impressive, but the structure behind it strongly indicates counterfeiting rather than a genuine recovery attempt. Price managed to overcome short-term resistance and reclaim minor moving averages, but as soon as it entered the heavier technical zone created by the 100 and 200 EMA clusters, it stalled almost instantly. On the other hand, assets like Shiba Inu and XRP haven’t even tried to break through, so the important test is yet to come.
Bitcoin’s Failed Recovery Attempt
At these times, real trend reversals either ignore them or take a quick break before continuing. Bitcoin did not. On the contrary, BTC printed a strong impulse which was immediately followed by a shallow continuation and hesitation. Following this surge, volume increased, but it quickly dried up. This is not sustained spot accumulation, but rather traditional hedging of short positions and late long positions. In essence, the market tested consumers’ willingness to accept price increases.
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Bitcoin is still structurally in a broader corrective phase. Instead of flattening or rising, the 200 EMA turns around as the long-term trend weakens. This is more important than any temporary increase. Any breakout attempt should be viewed with suspicion as long as BTC remains below this threshold. Rather than the start of a new rally, the current price action is consistent with a relief rally within a broader downtrend.
Momentum indicators support this. Although the RSI moved into the neutral upper range, it was unable to reach the levels usually associated with significant trend reversals. Longer time frames show a mechanical bounce from an oversold condition rather than a true bullish divergence.
This type of move is beneficial for the market but risky for anyone who might mistake it for a bottom because it resets indicators without altering the underlying market structure. Bitcoin is currently acting cautiously and mechanically.
Although not confident enough to push the price through significant resistance, buyers are active enough to avoid an instant breakout. However, it is clear that sellers are willing to defend higher levels. Instead of producing precise directional movements, this balance usually results in the suppression of false signals and frustration.
The return of the Shiba Inu
Shiba Inu price developments are slowly approaching a turning point. SHIB is once again heading towards the 100-day exponential moving average, and this is already the third attempt in a relatively short period of time after months of continued downward pressure and repeated failures in the face of significant resistance.
This context is important. Markets rarely break through significant levels on their first attempt, and resistance is often weakened rather than strengthened by repeated testing. After a prolonged decline in previous weeks, SHIB has stabilized.
Instead of collapsing once again, the asset cooled into a superficial consolidation after printing a local bottom and rebounding sharply. This behavior indicates a significant reduction in selling pressure. Price is currently compressing slightly below the 100 EMA and holding above the short-term moving averages, a situation that usually precedes a directional move.
Largely due to poor tracking and general market hesitation, the first two breakout attempts quickly failed. On the other hand, the structure now appears cleaner. Volatility is decreasing, buyers are regularly stepping in earlier than before, and drawdowns are becoming shorter and shorter.
The technical situation changes if SHIB is able to reclaim the 100 EMA and hold it above it even for a short period. The most recent lower-high structure would be invalidated by such a move, allowing a rotation towards the next resistance zone. From here, momentum could accelerate, particularly if overall market conditions remain stable.
Price acceptance above this level is what counts in a breakout rather than initial explosive volume. However, this is a high-risk area. A third failure at the 100 EMA would likely keep SHIB stuck in a slow range and strengthen the overall downtrend. In this case, patience would be required and the increase would be limited.
Shiba Inu hasn’t appeared yet, but he’s knocking on doors again. The next move could determine the course of SHIB for the coming weeks if “third time’s a charm” is true in this situation.
The triple formation of XRP
The best way to characterize XRP’s current structure is to view it as a series of three local price waves developing within a broader bearish framework. Expectations of a sharp recovery are already limited as each wave has formed within a downward sloping channel and falling moving averages.
The market reacts, corrects and turns around again rather than rushing higher. The price lost the 100 EMA level and could not recover it during the first wave, which signaled the first break of the previous support. This action set the tone: upward attempts lacked volume and follow-through, and sellers were in charge. The second wave was less powerful.
Although XRP rallied, it did so at a low, indicating that bullish interest was decreasing rather than increasing. This change was reflected in momentum indicators, which showed relief rather than accumulation. XRP is currently entering its third local wave. After a prolonged decline, this wave structurally attempts to establish a base, but encounters significant aerial resistance.
Each bounce is under pressure as the 50 and 100 EMA stay above the price and move lower. Technically speaking, this third wave is an attempted correction within a downtrend rather than a new bullish impulse. When assessing the likelihood of recovery, this context is important. A more significant response may occasionally result from a third wave, particularly if the selling pressure is over.
In the case of XRP, however, the previous two waves have already demonstrated that buyers are defensive rather than aggressive. The market has continually shown signs of pessimism, with each rally weaker than the last.
As of yet, there is no structural evidence that this trend is evolving. For a real recovery to begin, XRP would need to break the descending channel and reclaim significant moving averages in order to completely invalidate the wave structure.
