Crypto graces for the impact while Jackson Hole’s word of JPOW is looming

The cryptography market has slipped in the week in a detention scheme, with the action of laterally crushing prices and the positioning increasingly attached to a catalyst: the remarks of the president of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. “The only big big event will be this one,” said analyst Josh Olszewicz in her August 18 Stream Macro Monday. “Everyone is going to look at this, talk about it, analyze this … What Jay says (Friday)” will probably swing the expectations of the rates and risk the feeling. The symposium takes place from August 21 to 23, 2025 in Wyoming, under the theme “Work markets in transition: demography, productivity and macroeconomic politics”, an almost tailor -made backdrop to clarify the Fed path in autumn.

Will JPOW go on the cryptography market?

Olszewicz has framed the configuration as in season and structurally difficult for the crypto. The commitment of the positioning of traders (COT) on CME shows advertisements – the cohort which he considers “normally well for any historically market” – not convincingly, while basic transactions remain attractive and an open interest has slipped through future and CME options, including Solana. This mixture, he argued, limits the follow-up upside down in the absence of a macro spark. “It will be more difficult to push higher according to what we have seen historically and according to this long-term positioning data,” he said, adding that “when advertisements are long, the price tends to do better.”

The flows highlight the transverse current. He counted “a week of $ 4 billion” for crypto andps worldwide – most of the United States – with Ethereum by marking “a weekly flow of all time”, while Bitcoin’s intake seemed “modest” in comparison and Solana and XRP showed a collection. However, he warned that even the healthy funds did not collapse the tactically heavy positioning and the absence of a clear macro-impulsion before Powell.

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Microstrategy’s equity change of equity policy, which allows a market emission less than a premium of 2.5 × MNAV, has also become a subject of discussion in the hillock of the pre-jackson hole. Olszewicz noted that the accumulation of MSTR BTC “has slowed down a little” and that the MNAV premium of the action is actively arbitrated by traders “short MSTR, long spot (BTC)”, mutant the momentum more when the underlying room is without direction. In his opinion, “when the underlying is without momentum, there is no reason to seek a lever effect”, which helps to explain why MSTR “will have more difficulty leaping well” until BTC trends or corporate accumulations are redeesented.

Technically, he described the short term as “a giant and giant hamburger”. For Bitcoin, he underlined an area of $ 120,000 at $ 122,000 as a threshold for a cleaner long configuration, and for microstrategia, he reported “everything that is more than $ 410, and it is Go’s time”, while conceding that the momentum of the action “is moving faster and faster”. Through cryptographic actions, he saw a short time that was long “screaming”: exchanges and brokerage houses seemed to no time on his cloud models; The recent strength of minors was more than AI / HPC stories than to beta crypto; And even the eminent actions linked to ETH which have jumped since spring now show “record volumes” but a “more neutral” image at low duration. “There is no reason to force the professions when they are not there,” he said.

How will financial markets react?

The macro-gardas that he will monitor in Powell’s speech are familiar to crypto traders. On the US dollar index, he wants to continue “neutral hop” and firmly below the daily cloud – “you do not want this above 99, 100” – because a resurgent dxy “would be very careful with long on BTC”. On the prices, the 10-year treasure “permanently below 4.25” would be a back wind, while “above 5% of everyone is in difficulty”. He also pointed out the dynamics of plumbing: the withdrawal of reversed rests to zero and the simultaneous recharge of the general account of the Treasury – of the constituencies which could be released, but which, at the extremes, could push the FED to a political response if signs of liquidity are emerging.

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All the roads, however, return to Powell. Tuesday, wider markets were leaned towards a drop in September rate, with tools involved in the long term like Fedwatch of CME reflecting a high probability of a movement of 25 bps. “We see 83% for a reduction at the next meeting,” said Olszewicz about the starting point of the market, adding that if the expectations “evolve towards any cup, I expected that the markets are very angry”, while a 50 bps surprise “is probably improbable” but would be welcomed “in a bullish and happy way”.

For the moment, Olszewicz is content to wait. “I would just like to wait to see what it looks like in October. I don’t expect anything in September,” he said, in accordance with his point of view that the seasonality of the Crypto Q3 is a headwind and that significant trend signals often reappear in the fourth.

Until then, the tone of the chair on the progress of inflation, the cooling of the labor market and the possibility of a preventive relaxation will determine whether the “burger” of this week becomes the basis of a new higher leg – or a reminder that the macro always has the last word at the top of the crypto risk cascade. And with the explicit concentration of Jackson Hole on the labor markets this year, Powell’s framing could be more than the September boost; It could reset the way investors reflect on the entire path of politics until 2026.

At the time of the press, the total market capitalization of cryptography amounted to 3.84 billions of dollars.

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