Inside Strategy’s Bitcoin plan – and what could trigger a future sell-off

Key takeaways

• Strategy is the largest holding company of Bitcoin, with around 650,000 BTC on its balance sheet.

• The company’s model relies on raising capital and converting it into BTC while maintaining its market cap value to Bitcoin (mNAV) above 1.

• CEO Phong Le described any Bitcoin sale as a “last resort” option that would only be considered if mNAV falls below 1 and access to new capital deteriorates significantly.

• Even if Strategy chooses to sell a portion of its holdings, Bitcoin trades in a market with daily volume in the tens of billions, and any sale would likely be targeted rather than toward a full exit.

Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, has spent the last five years becoming what it calls “the world’s first and largest Bitcoin treasury company.”

As of early December 2025, it held nearly 650,000 Bitcoins (BTC), more than 3% of the 21 million offerings and by far the largest pile owned by a public company.

For many traditional investors, Strategy shares have become a sort of leveraged proxy for Bitcoin. Instead of buying BTC directly, they chose the stock because the company raises capital and converts it into Bitcoin.

The current debate comes from CEO Phong Le’s recent comments that a Bitcoin sale is possible under very specific conditions. Headlines often focus on the word “sell,” but the company presents this as risk management during extreme stress, not a change in its long-term Bitcoin thesis.

This article examines how the plan works and what might trigger sales, helping readers interpret future news without panic or fear of missing out (FOMO). This guide is purely informational and not investment advice.

Did you know? Recent estimates suggest that institutions now hold almost 20% of all Bitcoins mined.

How Strategy’s Bitcoin Engine Really Works

On a daily basis, Strategy manages a relatively simple loop in financial terms. The company:

1. Raises capital in traditional markets through in-market common stock programs, multiple series of perpetual preferred stock, such as STRK and STRF, and occasional convertible debt.

2. Uses much of this capital to buy more Bitcoin, which it considers its primary cash reserve asset.

3. A set of measures follows to judge whether this remains sustainable and accretive for shareholders.

Two of these measures are important here:

• Bitcoin per share (BPS): How much BTC is actually behind each fully diluted share? Strategy publishes this as a key performance indicator.

• Market capitalization/net asset value (nVNI): The ratio of Strategy’s total market value to the market value of its Bitcoin holdings. If the mNAV is greater than 1, the stock is trading at a premium to its BTC.

When the company trades at a healthy premium, it can raise new shares or preferred shares with less dilution and continue to grow its Bitcoin stack. This base case scenario – in which the strategy goes up at a premium, buys more BTC, and grows BPS – is still the model management says it will pursue.

The “last resort” sales trigger

The new item is a kill switch clearly marked for this model.

In recent interviews, Le explained that Strategy would only consider selling Bitcoin if two conditions were met at the same time:

1. mNAV falls below 1, meaning the company’s market cap falls at or below the value of the Bitcoin it holds.

2. Access to new capital dries up, for example if investors are no longer willing to buy its shares or preferred shares on viable terms.

He described selling BTC in this scenario as a “last resort” option to fulfill obligations such as preferred dividends, not as a permanent plan to sell the treasury.

In simple terms:

If the stock is trading at or below the value of BTC and the company cannot refinance, then selling a slice of BTC becomes the least bad way to protect the overall structure.

What could reasonably push the strategy towards this line?

Several moving parts would need to align before the “last resort” change is even considered.

Macro and Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin has already fallen sharply from its October all-time high near $126,000 to around $80,000, a decline of around 30%. Deeper or more prolonged drawdowns compress the value of Strategy’s BTC stack and tend to put pressure on its shares at the same time.

Stock performance and mNAV

Strategy’s market cap premium over its Bitcoin has already narrowed after the stock fell 30-60% from previous highs. In mid-November, the company briefly traded around or even below the spot value of its holdings, which suggested an mNAV close to 1.

Financing conditions

The company relies on its ability to issue new common and perpetual preferred stock through existing shelf registrations and at-the-market (ATM) programs. If those offerings slowed sharply or investors demanded much higher returns, that would signal strain on the financing side.

Internal obligations

The strategy has significant annual commitments in the form of preferred dividends and debt service. Analysts value preferred dividend obligations at hundreds of millions of dollars per year.

Management still describes itself as a long-term Bitcoin accumulator, and the above scenarios depict a severe stress environment.

Did you know? Onchain’s forensic analyzes suggest that 3-4 million BTC is likely lost forever in dead wallets, meaning a significant portion of the supply will never return to the market.

What a Strategy Selloff Would and Would Not Mean for Bitcoin

Given that the strategy holds 650,000 BTC, any change from “never sell” to “could sell under pressure” naturally attracts the attention of traders.

However, the context is important:

• Market size: The daily volume of Bitcoin spot and derivatives transactions regularly runs into the tens of billions of dollars. At the same time, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States saw single-day inflows and outflows measured in the billions. A controlled sale of a fraction of Strategy’s holdings, even if significant, would provide access to a very large and liquid market.

• Likely scale and pace: Based on Le’s own comments, any selling in a stress scenario would be targeted and partial, aimed at fulfilling obligations or maintaining the capital structure rather than exiting Bitcoin.

• Price in advance: Markets often begin to price in these possibilities as soon as they are revealed. The recent pullback in BTC and Strategy stocks, as well as the mNAV debate, are an example of this process.

It is important to note that a conditional sale framework as a last resort is not the same as an announcement of impending major BTC sales.

Did you know? In Q3 2025, the average daily crypto spot trading volume was approximately $155 billion, with an additional $14 billion in notional crypto derivatives. exchange daily on CME alone.

How to follow Strategy’s next moves

For readers who want to follow this story without reacting to every headline or meme, several observable indicators can help readers understand the situation more clearly:

Start with primary sources.

• U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings, such as 8Ks and prospectus supplements, show new capital raises and updated Bitcoin holdings.

• Strategy’s press releases and its “Bitcoin Purchases” page summarize recent purchases and total holdings.

Look at the basic measurements.

• U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings, such as 8Ks and prospectus supplements, show new capital raises and updated Bitcoin holdings.

• Strategy’s press releases and its “Bitcoin Purchases” page summarize recent purchases and total holdings.

• Social media activity often reflects feelings rather than data. “Green dot” posts, laser eye memes and doomsday threads can be helpful in reading the mood, but it’s worth cross-checking any claims about forced sales or insolvency with filings and numbers.

NB Financial situation, time horizons and risk tolerance vary among individuals. This information is general in nature and should not be construed as advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Readers should consider consulting a qualified financial professional for advice tailored to their situation.