The crypto market has shown a modest price rebound over the past three weeks, returning to a total market cap of $3.07 trillion. During this period, Bitcoin has climbed 11% from its local low of $80,700, while Ethereum has been more aggressive, gaining 18% over the same period. Despite this reassuring performance, a market analyst by the username PelinayPA posits that the bear market has begun, given certain technical parameters.
BTC and ETH moving averages and trading volumes signal bearish season
Bear market speculation reached a heightened level in Q4 2025 as the crypto market underwent significant price corrections, during which Bitcoin alone fell by around 36.5%. Although the market has shown some consistent upward mobility over the past few weeks, many analysts remain convinced that the bears have taken control of the market, leaving little upside potential for a complete market reversal.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s chart, PelinayPA explains that the price is currently trading below the short (7, 14), medium (30, 50), and long term (100) moving averages, indicating strong seller dominance in the market. However, the more worrying observation is that these averages are falling, suggesting that the recent downward trend or corrections may not be temporary.
Additionally, the veteran crypto analyst notes that these moving averages act as resistance to classic bear market behavior that triggers a selling frenzy upon contact with price. Furthermore, sellers are also aggressive, as red candles have higher volume, while hesitant buyers charge green candles with relatively lower volumes. Based on these technical observations, PelinayPA explains that Bitcoin does not trigger a bullish market reversal, but rather remains a reaction within a broader bear market.
Meanwhile, Ethereum market analysis shows a similar situation as the price is trading below key moving averages. However, the short-term MAs (7, 14) are starting to trend higher. Additionally, price rebounds from the lows are stable and stronger while candles record shorter wicks, indicating that selling pressure is less aggressive, which is why buying interest remains visible.
Therefore, although Ethereum is clearly stronger than Bitcoin, the bullish strength remains insufficient to initiate a trend reversal, as long-term MAs remain lower amid low buying volume.
Bitcoin Price Overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $90,155 after a slight decline of 0.22% over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume is down 20.34% and valued at $64.22 billion.
According to PelinayPA, Bitcoin’s bull rally is over and a deeper price correction is needed before investors see another parabolic surge or all-time high. The analyst predicts that Bitcoin will bottom around $50,000 in the “ongoing” bear market, positing a potential decline of 44.4% from current market prices.
