Key notes
- VanEck believes the dynamics of the cycle point to consolidation rather than collapse or crash.
- The best risk-reward in miners is moving to AI/HPC, with cheap energy and credible economics.
- Stablecoin B2B settlement offers one advantage: VanEck favors a disciplined allocation of 1-3% BTC.
VanEck expects
Bitcoin
$0.0353
24h volatility:
0.3%
Market capitalization:
$35.35 million
Flight. 24h:
$6.76 million
enter 2026 with “mixed but constructive” signals and a higher probability of consolidation than collapse or dramatic crash.
According to a new firm-wide cryptocurrency study led by Matthew Sigel (Head of Digital Asset Research), Bitcoin’s realized volatility has been reduced by about half since the previous cycle. This implies that the next cyclical downturn is likely to be smaller (around 40% versus ~80% last time), with much of it already absorbed by the market. They also claim that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, which often peaks in the post-US election window, “remains intact” after the peak in early October 2025. This supports the case for 2026 as a digestion year.
VanEck defines his call through three objectives:
- Global liquidity: rate cuts probably help, but some U.S. liquidity is tighter as AI investments collide with a fragile funding market.
- System leverage: reset significantly after several washes.
- On-chain activity: still mild, but improving.
For investors, the company reiterates a disciplined allocation of 1-3% BTC, built via dollar cost averaging and opportunistic additions to leverage unwinding.
The big business of 2026: miners transform into AI/HPC providers
VanEck highlights the capital-intensive shift underway among Bitcoin miners, increasing the hash rate while simultaneously boosting AI/HPC data center capacity. The company’s other research tracks public miners planning to scale from ~7 GW under power in early 2025 to ~16 GW by 2026 and ~20 GW by 2027, with 20-30% of that power likely reused for AI/HPC workloads. In VanEck’s view, mining companies with cheap and guaranteed energy, credible HPC economics, and non-dilutive financing should lead a consolidation cycle reminiscent of 2020-2021.
This pivot is already visible in the headlines: former pure-play miners signing multi-year AI computing leases measured in hundreds of megawatts. Hut 8, for example, unveiled a roughly $7 billion, 15-year data center deal, backed by Anthropic/Fluidstack, with options to expand into the gigawatt range. This is an emblem of the industry’s shift toward energy-based IT revenues. Other operators, such as Core Scientific, are getting upgrades on expanding HPC pipelines.
Stablecoins and digital payments: selective rise
Beyond mining, VanEck sees a more selective opportunity in digital payments and stablecoin settlement. In particular, B2B flows can reduce cross-border costs and improve working capital cycles.
The company warns that pure exposure to public stocks is limited. Short-term beneficiaries could be fintech and e-commerce operators that integrate stable rails to unlock margin leverage. Broader market coverage also suggests that near-term stablecoin use cases are shifting toward cross-border B2B, even as consumer card networks remain resilient.
Why the call for “consolidation” is plausible
- Lower realized volatility: VanEck data and on-chain checks in mid-2025 reported that BTC volume was drifting toward cycle lows, consistent with smaller (although still strong) declines.
- Cycle structure intact: A post-election peak trend and the October 2025 high fit the four-year pattern, pointing to an increase in the range in 2026.
- Reset leverage, gently but improving on the chain: Past debt reduction reduces fragility; Incremental increases in chain promote grinding rather than cliff edge movements.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article is intended to provide accurate and current information, but should not be considered financial or investment advice. Because market conditions can change quickly, we encourage you to verify the information for yourself and consult a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Yana Khlebnikova joined CoinSpeaker as an editor in January 2025, following previous stints at Techopedia, crypto.news, Cointelegraph and CoinMarketCap, where she honed her expertise in cryptocurrency journalism.
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