Big news from the Federal Reserve, which has just injected $2.5 billion into the US banking system in an overnight repo, adding to the $120 billion injected into the market this year. But despite this massive increase in liquidity, Bitcoin price is still lagging and struggling to break the $90,000 resistance.
On a positive note, Visa has officially declared crypto “mainstream” in 2025, with stablecoins and AI payments leading the way. All of this is happening as gold hits an all-time high of $4,562 an ounce and silver now sits at $79. Both metals have been trending higher lately, much like the trend seen in 2020, when gold ($2,075/oz) and silver ($29/oz) hit their highs, which then sparked big rallies for other assets.
With so much bullish news surrounding Bitcoin, it’s a bit surprising to see its price lagging, especially with gold and silver continuing to surpass their highs.
So, could Bitcoin be next in line for a major surge?
Looking back to 2020, after gold and silver hit their highs, Bitcoin saw a huge breakthrough. It went from $11,500 to $29,000 at the end of the year, a gain of 150%. In 2021, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies grew from around $390 billion to over $2 trillion. Traditional stocks like the S&P 500 have also seen nice gains, rising 7% in 2020, followed by a 27% rise in 2021.
(source – Curvo)
Today, as the Federal Reserve continues to inject liquidity into the market, Bitcoin could follow a similar path and the bear market could finally end. The question is: when will it happen?
Right now, Bitcoin is stuck below $90,000, but there is a huge volatility anomaly that could lead to a breakout. Realized volatility sits at 37.8%, showing that Bitcoin is actually moving, but implied volatility is much lower at 15.1%.
This disconnect between what the market expects and what is actually happening is historically unsustainable, and it could just as easily cause the price of Bitcoin to rise soon.
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So why is this volatility asymmetry so important? Because, simply put, this puts Bitcoin on sale right now. People jump into call options (betting on higher prices), expecting the price of Bitcoin to rise. As a result, dealers must track rising prices to make these bets, which turns small increases into much bigger runs.
There’s also the fact that a 4chan user who correctly predicted Bitcoin’s October peak at $126,198 is now predicting a Bitcoin price of $250,000 by 2026. Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss also tweeted that Bitcoin is “gold 2.0” and said, “Wait until the world realizes this.” All of this may be the spark needed for next year’s bull run.
