This year crypto has been a pretty wild ride, with bigger players, policy changes, and a shift in business models. Some stories matured, others faded, and a few set the stage for the following year.
To understand where crypto could be heading in 2026, it’s worth taking a close look at what’s happened over the past year.
A year of limited reality
At first glance, 2025 seemed active. In fact, this was retained.
Bitcoin spent most of the year oscillating in a wide range, hitting new highs mid-year before giving up much of those gains in the fourth quarter.
Despite periods of faster pace, BTC largely finished the year close to where it started, down 10% year-to-date.
Source: TradingView
Something similar happened with TOTAL2, which tracks everything except Bitcoin (BTC). Altcoins experienced a brief rally mid-year, but it failed to hold.
At the end of the year, TOTAL2 experienced a clear decline, returning to a consolidation that erased months of progress.
Source: TradingView
Capital moved from one place to another, but it did not expand. Bitcoin dominated thanks to stability, but the market struggled to manage risks.
Looking ahead, Nischal Shetty, founder of WazirX, said:
“In 2026, globally, institutional appetite for regulated digital asset products will continue to increase, driving capital inflows and contributing to market stability.”
He added:
“At the same time, countries’ domestic policies will be key in shaping the sentiment of their respective investors. »
2025: a look at the numbers
Source: SoSoValue
Bitcoin spot ETFs dominated flows in 2025, attracting stable capital through the middle of the year before experiencing outflows towards the end of the year.
Source: SoSoValue
Ethereum (ETH) spot ETFs have followed a similar arc but on a smaller scale.
After the SEC approved generic listing standards for commodity-based crypto trusts in September, the logjam broke.
By the end of the year, more than a dozen altcoin ETFs had entered the scene, with the launch of products tied to assets such as Solana (SOL), Ripple’s XRP (XRP), and Litecoin (LTC).
Source: rwa.xyz
Alongside ETFs, tokenized RWAs have surpassed $20 billion, dominated by US Treasury debt and private credit. Canton Network (CC) largely dominated broadcasts, while Ethereum’s role remained smaller but stable.
Source: DeFiLlama
DeFi in 2025 was more about consolidation than anything else.
Ethereum maintained its dominance, accounting for more than two-thirds of the total DeFi TVL. Solana strengthened its position as a leading alternative, while BNB Chain (BNB), Tron (TRX) and Arbitrum (ARB) strengthened their share.
Some key regulatory changes this year
The United States passed the GENIUS Act, which imposes strict 1:1 reserve requirements for stablecoins. The law required regular audits and explicitly removed certain payment stablecoins from securities and commodity classifications.
The CLARITY Act followed, formally dividing oversight between the SEC and CFTC based on asset function. It also introduced consumer disclosure rules and the concept of “mature blockchains.”
In Europe, MiCA has come into full force, creating a single regulatory framework across all 27 EU states. It establishes standards for issuers, service providers and stablecoins, making compliance mandatory for market access.
As for Asia, Hong Kong implemented a licensing regime for stablecoins backed by fiat currencies in August 2025, requiring full reserves, guaranteed redemptions and strict AML compliance.
Limited issuer approvals are expected in 2026. Singapore, meanwhile, has expanded MAS’s powers under the FIMA Act, giving regulators broader authority to inspect and supervise crypto derivatives across all markets.
Heading into the new year…
Follow-up will be the most important.
You may want to monitor whether ETF demand begins to attract sustained liquidity to ETH and select altcoins, not just Bitcoin. RWAs will matter less because of their size than who uses them.
In DeFi, survival may depend on revenue as capital becomes more selective.
Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares, predicted:
“…we expect (this) institutional supply to drive Bitcoin to a new all-time high beyond $126,000, as increasing global M2 supply and expansionary monetary policies solidify its status as a much-needed store of wealth.”
But don’t rest yet. Regulatory clarity cuts both ways, making underutilized tokens easier to ignore. Range-bound markets could further deplete retail trading, while leverage could suddenly return.
Until then, have a good vacation! We will see each other again next year.
Final Thoughts
- 2025 has been a year of rotation, with Bitcoin falling 10% year-to-date and altcoins unable to break through.
- Looking ahead to 2026, ETF tracking, real-world RWA adoption, and income-driven DeFi will be important.
