CME Bitcoin Futures Gap Reflects Market Pressure
Bitcoin started the week with a significant gap in CME futures trading. Regulated contracts opened around $77,730, almost $6,800 lower than Friday’s close of near $84,560. This created the second largest gap ever recorded for these institutionally focused derivatives.
Spot Bitcoin was trading in a high $77,000 range as markets processed last week’s sell-off. January’s decline pushed Bitcoin to a monthly close near $78,600, marking one of the weakest January performances in over a decade. Trading activity resumed with increased volatility, and futures markets saw high turnover while leverage was reduced following last week’s selloffs.
Market change in January and liquidity issues
Bitcoin started January on stronger footing, opening in the high $80,000 range and climbing towards the mid to high $90,000 range during the first half of the month. But momentum petered out in mid-January and sellers took control. The pressure has intensified over the past week, with Bitcoin falling from the high of $80,000.
According to The Kobeissi Letter’s analysis, the decline in late January was mainly due to dwindling liquidity and heavy liquidations rather than macroeconomic news. The firm noted that excessive leverage in tight market conditions led to rapid position closures and sharp price declines, with more than $1.3 billion in forced liquidations over two days.
Market analyst PlanB said the January close confirmed a broader bearish move. He highlighted the monthly Relative Strength Index falling below 50 and noted that long-term averages are drifting towards the mid-$50,000 range. Based on past cycles, he suggested that Bitcoin could revisit these levels, while adding that the current downturn could be more limited than previous bear markets.
Not everyone shares this view. Robert Kiyosaki said on social media that he views the recent decline as a buying opportunity and plans to increase his exposure to Bitcoin, gold and silver during periods of market stress.
Technical outlook and market structure
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains under pressure after failing to hold above the $80,000-$82,000 zone. The fall towards the $70,000 high broke recent support and maintained the short-term downtrend.
The price is trading below key moving averages, which are now acting as resistance. Bounces towards the $84,000-$85,000 zone are likely to be met with selling interest, especially with the CME gap still open. The support is grouped between $77,000 and $78,000. A prolonged break below this range could pave the way for a more significant decline towards $70,000.
To stabilize the structure and reduce downward pressure, Bitcoin should reclaim the $80,000 average at the daily close. The CME gap itself could influence short-term trading behavior, as traders often monitor whether the price moves back towards the previous close. This trend can lead to additional volatility in the days following such deviations.
CME Bitcoin futures are regulated contracts primarily used by institutional investors, hedge funds and professional traders. As the exchange is closed on weekends, prices may deviate from those of the spot market, which trades 24 hours a day. When futures contracts reopen, significant deviations may appear if Bitcoin has moved strongly during the closed period.
