Polymarket estimates 79% chance of US government shutdown in January

Investors in polymarkets are now betting 79% that the US government will shut down again before the end of January, a 69% increase in the last 24 hours that brings political uncertainty back to the forefront.

Crypto trading prediction market got over $5 million in trading volume on whether a shutdown would occur.

After rising more than 69% over the past day, punters’ expectations appear to have abruptly shifted as political tensions intensify in Washington.

This increase in probabilities coincides with the Democrats’ decision to oppose the budget package. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats “would not cooperate on a vote to begin consideration” of an appropriations bill that includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Immediately after these comments, bets on a stoppage multiplied on Polymarket.

According to Collin Rugg, a leading political commentator in the United States, the increase in odds was highlighted in an article

JUST IN: Odds of a US government shutdown by January 31 rise to 85% on Polymarket after Senator Chuck Schumer announced that Democrats would *not* advance the appropriations bill if DHS funding was included.

“What is happening in Minnesota is appalling and unacceptable in every way… pic.twitter.com/RuC7Ylbzvr

– Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) January 25, 2026

Trump is sure of a shutdown in the future

US President Donald Trump has also not ruled out a shutdown. In a recent interview with Fox Businesshe said there was “a problem” and noted that it was “very likely to lead to another paralysis of the Democrats.” Such a series of intransigent comments from political leaders is fueling market anxiety.

According to Schumer, the DHS bill is woefully insufficient to curb ICE abuses.

The likelihood of a shutdown at the end of January adds uncertainty to the CLARTÉ law expected timeline, which was recently called into question and sent the market into a tailspin after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and some executives withdrew their support.

Armstrong’s views on the bill were recently echoed by Alex Thorne, head of research at Galaxy Digital. According to Thorne, the bill does not provide in-depth insight into stable coin yields, which he believes could harm the competitiveness of the banking sector.

– Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) January 24, 2026

Industry observers warn that if the political impasse continues, regulatory uncertainty could further increase.

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