Dogecoin price forecast as BOJ keeps rates unchanged

Dogecoin is on a weekly losing streak, down more than 10% as it trades in a falling channel. This trend signals continued selling pressure as each recovery attempt fails to generate meaningful follow-through.

As sellers remain in control and price continues its downward trend, DOGE is now hovering near a key demand zone around $0.13, which has served as strong support throughout the decline.

DOGE fell slightly over the past 24 hours to trade at $0.125 as of 2:43 a.m. EST, with trading volume down more than 42% to $768 million, indicating reduced trading activity today.

The decline comes alongside the broader crypto market, which has fallen more than 2% for a market capitalization of $3.1 trillion. Most crypto tokens remained unchanged after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged as expected.

The Bank of Japan maintains its rates, investors remain cautious

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Friday and raised its economic and inflation forecasts, signaling its willingness to continue raising still-low borrowing costs.

As expected, the Japanese central bank kept its short-term interest rates at 0.75% by an 8-1 vote.

The lone dissenter, Takata, argued that the price stability objective had largely been achieved and that price risks were tilted to the upside.

In its updated forecast, the bank left its core inflation projections for fiscal years 2025 and 2027 unchanged at 2.7% and 2% respectively. A tenth pushed back the forecast for 2026 to 1.9%.

As a result, the Japanese yen fell against the U.S. dollar, which was trading at 158.64 yen, down from 158.42 yen.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.5% to 6,913.35, extending its rise after U.S. President Donald Trump rolled back tariffs on European countries that he said opposed his calls for U.S. control of Greenland.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6% to 49,384.01 and the Nasdaq composite gained 0.9% to 23,436.02.

Dogecoin Price Faces Downtrend Pressure

Dogecoin is trading between $0.12 and $0.13, holding just above short-term support at $0.12, where buyers stepped in after the latest decline in the broader downtrend.

This period of sideways movement follows a sustained decline from the $0.28 to $0.30 area, where selling pressure intensified, pushing DOGE price into an extended corrective phase.

Demand appeared near the $0.10 area, slowing the bearish momentum and stabilizing the Dogecoin price.

Dogecoin price is trading below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near $0.13, which is currently acting as dynamic resistance. The price also remains well below the 200-day SMA, around $0.19, supporting the overall bearish bias.

Momentum indicators reflect this cautious setup. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 39-45, currently at 39.56, below the neutral level of 50. This indicates weak momentum, but not deeply oversold, leaving room for a potential relief rebound if buying interest increases.

DOGE price risks a lasting decline

Based on the DOGE/USD daily chart, Dogecoin price may continue to decline. On the downside, failure to break channel resistance could result in another pullback, with $0.12 serving as immediate support. A loss of this level could expose the $0.10 demand zone, where buyers previously stepped in to defend the price.

Conversely, a short-term move towards the $0.14-$0.15 area is possible as the upper boundary of the channel aligns with previous rejection levels and the falling 50-day SMA.

A decisive break above the channel, followed by a sustained move above $0.15, would be the first technical signal that bearish pressure is weakening. A more significant trend change would likely require reclaiming the $0.19 to $0.20 region, near the 200-day SMA.

An analysis by popular crypto analyst on X, Ali Martinez, shows that DOGE has formed a descending wedge pattern on the weekly chart, which could lead to a long-term breakout.

Dogecoin $DOGE tends to respect corner structures, and a break of this could be powerful. pic.twitter.com/aw17nIv1ws

– Ali Charts (@alicharts) January 22, 2026

For Dogecoin to realistically move into a sustainable recovery phase, there would need to be a confirmed breakdown of structure, potentially marked by higher lows and a daily close above key resistance levels.

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