This year has been a difficult year for Cardano (ADA) investors, as weakening retail participation is met with a resumption of development activity and aggressive accumulation from large holders.
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While on-chain data indicates increasing long-term conviction, market sentiment around ADA remains fragile, leaving the asset stuck between technical pressure and ecosystem expansion efforts.
Cardano sits at 11th, trading near $0.28 after a sharp correction from January highs above $0.44. The price structure reflects a broader cooling in the market, with lower derivatives activity and cautious positioning by traders reinforcing analysts’ description of a “survival mode” environment for the token.
Market fatigue weighs on Cardano (ADA) price dynamics
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson recently warned that the crypto market could face another 90 to 180 days of downturn, citing retail trading exhaustion after years of market shocks including exchange failures, regulatory uncertainty and repeated speculative cycles.
Data on derivatives supports this cautious outlook. Open interest in ADA futures fell to around $447 million, alongside a decline in trading volumes, signaling a decrease in trader conviction. Funding rates have also turned negative, suggesting bearish sentiment is developing in leveraged markets.
Technically, ADA is testing key support levels. The token continues to defend an ascending trendline formed after the February low near $0.22, while resistance remains clustered around the $0.29 to $0.30 region.
Analysts note that repeated tests of support increase the risk of a breakdown, potentially exposing downside targets near $0.25 if selling pressure intensifies. Despite this weakness, forming lower levels and stabilizing above short-term moving averages leaves room for a recovery if overall market sentiment improves.
Whales Step In As Retail Interest Diminishes
As retail demand fades, large holders appear to be taking the opposite approach. On-chain data shows that wallets holding between 10 and 100 million ADA have accumulated over 220 million tokens, valued at over $61 million, during the recent price decline.
The Mean Coin Age metric hit a three-month high, indicating that long-term holders are largely refraining from selling. Historically, this combination of whale accumulation and reduced token movements can tighten circulating supply and help establish price floors during downturns.
Some analysts say the February lows could represent a longer-term entry zone if market conditions stabilize, while cautioning that historical rebounds are no guarantee of future performance.DeFi expansion plans aim to change the narrative
Beyond price action, Cardano is making progress in upgrading its ecosystem to strengthen its decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. The network plans to launch USDCx, a USDC-backed stablecoin intended to address liquidity shortages that have limited DeFi’s growth on-chain.
At the same time, Cardano integrates the LayerZero interoperability protocol, allowing connections to more than 140 blockchain networks, including Ethereum and Solana. The move is expected to expand access to liquidity across chains and attract developers looking for a broader user base.
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Development activity remains high, with hundreds of repository updates focused on wallet improvements, cross-chain communication, and network infrastructure. However, market reaction has so far remained muted, suggesting that investors are expecting measurable adoption rather than mere announcements.
Cover image of ChatGPT, ADAUSD chart on Tradingview
