President Trump is working to end the conflict with Iran and stop the development of nuclear weapons. The chances of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran by April 30 have fallen to 23.5% YES, from 40% yesterday.
The market shows mixed reactions. The chances of an immediate ceasefire are low: April 7 is 1.8% YES, compared to 8% a day ago. The April 15 market also fell 18% to 8.5%. However, the May 31 market is at 45.5% YES, suggesting traders expect progress in the coming months.
$535,634 was traded in the last 24 hours, with a significant drop of 4 points on May 31. It takes $25,858 to move the April 7 market by 5 points, indicating low liquidity. The biggest change in sentiment occurs between April 30 and May 31, suggesting a potential development in May.
Trump’s diplomatic efforts could change strategies, but skepticism persists. The market is suggesting a potential breakthrough by the end of May, with YES shares as of May 31 priced at 46¢, offering a 2.2x yield if resolved. Traders are banking on a diplomatic catalyst within 59 days.
Watch for peace talks, CENTCOM statements, or mediation from Oman or Qatar. The actions of Rubio and Hegseth are also essential to American strategy.
Affected markets
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