Prolonged Bitcoin Slowdown May Not Be Bearish
Bitcoin has been moving sideways for months now, and honestly, it hasn’t been easy to watch. Since October, we have seen a series of bearish monthly closes that have pushed crypto sentiment into fear territory. This slow, brutal pressure is often worse than hard sales: it gradually wears you out.
But here’s something interesting: One analyst suggests we shouldn’t view this recent stretch as a harbinger of further declines. Instead, history shows that Bitcoin could be much closer to a turning point than most people think.
The 2018-2019 parallel
“With the current panic, buying makes more sense here,” the analyst wrote, adding that Bitcoin could reach another all-time high after this move. The evidence they point to dates back to late 2018 and early 2019 – the only other time Bitcoin printed six consecutive red monthly candles.
This period between 2018 and 2019 is actually quite informative when looking at Bitcoin’s price history. What happened next reshaped the entire cycle.
From August 2018 to January 2019, Bitcoin closed six consecutive red monthly candles in a decline that took the price from around $7,700 to around $3,500. The feeling then completely deteriorated. Retail players had largely capitulated and, to the average observer, price action appeared completely broken.
But that wasn’t the case at all. Those six months actually forced weaker hands out, absorbed persistent selling pressure, and quietly built the foundation for what was to come. By May 2019, Bitcoin had climbed to nearly $10,500, a gain of more than 3 times its cycle low. In June, it reached $13,000, which represented a return of more than 4 times the low of this six-candle drop.
Current market context
The current price action of Bitcoin shares some of these characteristics, although it is not identical. The structure resembles that of 2018/2019, but the context could be more constructive this time.
Bitcoin’s consecutive red monthly candles since October 2025 have dropped the price from a high above $126,000 to a low below $70,000. This is a controlled pullback of more than 45% from the peak – painful by conventional standards, but measured in the context of Bitcoin’s historic declines.
The analyst notes that even though the candles are red, they are not impulsive. There is no panic structure, just constant selling pressure that has been absorbed over time. What’s particularly interesting is that even as retail sentiment deteriorated during this multi-month decline, institutional buyers moved in the opposite direction. Strategy, the world’s largest Bitcoin holding company, has accumulated over 122,000 BTC during this period.
Potential results
If the 2019 recovery model applies on a comparable scale, a 3x to 4x move from recent lows would put Bitcoin between $180,000 and $250,000 in the coming months. Even a more conservative 2x rally from the $67,000 range would put Bitcoin trading at new all-time highs above $130,000 in the coming months.
I think the takeaway here is that prolonged periods of sideways downward price action do not necessarily mean the trend is broken. Sometimes they just turn up the pressure for the next move. Market psychology during these phases can be misleading: what appears to be a never-ending decline could actually pave the way for a significant recovery.
Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results, and each market cycle has its own characteristics. But the historical parallel is worth considering, especially when sentiment reaches extreme levels. The fact that we are seeing institutional accumulation during this downturn adds another dimension to the story.
It’s easy to get caught up in day-to-day price movements, but taking a step back to look at monthly candles and historical patterns can offer a different perspective. The current structure may appear bearish on the surface, but the underlying dynamics could tell a different story.
