Ethereum held the $2,000 support level and extended its ascending structure, reaching a local high of $2,147. Over the past four days, each pullback has formed a higher low, showing that buyers have stepped in at high levels.
At press time, ETH was trading at $2,136, up 4.81% on the daily chart and 3% over the week.
Despite this strength, analyst Darkfost warned that rising speculation could introduce greater volatility.
Speculators Dominate Ethereum, Futures Overtaking Spot
The structure of Ethereum has changed as derivatives activity has grown faster than spot participation.
According to Darkfost, Ethereum Open Interest (OI) increased from 5 million in October to 6.4 million Ethereum (ETH). Binance is leading this rally with over 2.3 million ETH in OI on the exchange.
As a result, futures activity has outpaced spot demand.
At press time, the Spot/Futures volume ratio on Binance fell to 0.13, marking its lowest level this year. This suggested futures volume was nearly seven times the spot volume.
Additionally, the buy-sell ratio of derivatives takers has remained positive over the past five days. This shows that buyers retained control over the positioning of derivative products.
In fact, total inflows into futures positions reached $66.9 billion. This accumulation suggests that speculation continues to drive price action in the near term.
While speculation tends to increase volatility, recent futures flows have significantly boosted upward momentum.
Looking at the Momentum indicator, it moved from a negative zone around -103 to 159, indicating strengthening bullish momentum.
At the same time, the bullish EMA remained above 50, averaging around 59, signaling increased buying pressure in the market. Therefore, if capital continues to flow into futures, ETH could hold above $2.1k and target $2,370.
Spot market lags due to reduced liquidity
Ethereum futures have outperformed the spot market, partly due to reduced market liquidity. On the spot market side, investors have declined to participate amid continued instability in global markets.
In fact, Ethereum liquidity on Binance has dropped to levels not seen since January 2026. Ethereum’s liquidity ratio has fallen to 5.1, indicating a significant decrease in trading activity on Binance.
Thus, the 30-day cumulative turnover fell to 16.6 million ETH, a massive drop from 20-25 million ETH recorded in 2025. This suggests that investors have been making fewer deposits or withdrawals, which suggests they are simply staying away.
Even more worrying for the spot business is that most participants continued to withdraw capital. Data from CoinGlass showed that sellers sold more than $4.4 billion over the past week, with $748 million sold in the past 24 hours.
Reduced liquidity and continued selling risk pushing ETH lower, however, with a prolonged consolidation between $2,000 and $2.1,000 most likely.
