Bittensor price is trading at $325.1, down 3.04% on the day, after rejecting a multi-month descending trendline for the second time in two weeks – and the daily MACD has now confirmed a bearish crossover that shifts the short-term bias to the downside.
Summary
- Bittensor (TAO) is trading at $325.1, down 3.04% on the day, after twice rejecting a multi-month descending trendline near the $355-$371 area in two weeks.
- The daily MACD confirmed a bearish cross, with the MACD line at 19.6 crossing below the signal at 22.0 and the histogram printing at -2.4.
- Immediate support lies at $297.5, and a confirmed break below this level sets the stage for the daily supertrend at $263.7, while a daily close above $371 invalidates the bearish pattern.
Bittensor (TAO) produced two consecutive failures at the $355-$371 resistance zone over the past two weeks, forming a lower high on the second attempt and reinforcing the strength of the descending trendline that has capped every rally since November 2025.
The first rejection came close to $371 on March 25, following the Bittensor halving and reports that Grayscale Investments had increased its TAO weighting to 43.06% in its AI-focused fund. The second attempt reached $355 on April 7, produced a lower high, and reversed. Both rejection points are visible as circled pivots on the daily chart, and TAO has since returned to $325.1 without rising above either level.
The daily MACD confirmed the pattern. The MACD line has moved below the signal, reading 19.6 against a signal of 22.0, with the histogram at -2.4. Both lines remain above zero, limiting the severity of the crossover, but the signal confirms that the momentum created during the AI sector rally in March is fading.
On the 4H chart, the MACD remains technically bullish, with the MACD line at 6.8 above the signal at 5.8 and histogram at 1.0. The $313.8 Supertrend 4H continues to serve as dynamic support. However, the 4H histogram has compressed sharply from previous sessions, and a bearish crossover on this time frame would add significant confluence with the daily signal.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said on This view supports a base case scenario in which $297.5 is a starting point and not a breakout level.
Key levels and price targets
Immediate support: The 4H supertrend at $313.8, followed by the structural demand zone at $297.5, visible on both the 4H and daily charts and reported as a key bottom during the March accumulation phase.
Extended Downside Target: $263.7, the Daily Supertrend. Previous analysis flagged a potential corrective towards $200 if the pattern repeats from previous Golden Cross fractals, although this scenario requires a sustained close below $263.7 to take effect.
Bullish case: a confirmed daily close above $371 invalidates the double rejection and opens the way towards $400. Bearish case: A break below $297.5 targets $263.7. Invalidation: $371.
Derivatives and institutional context
Data from Coinglass shows that TAO open interest has declined alongside prices in recent sessions, consistent with long deleveraging rather than aggressive new short positioning. This setup reduces the likelihood of a sharp squeeze near current levels and suggests that the next directional move will more likely be supply-driven rather than forced.
Grayscale also filed with the SEC to convert its Bittensor Trust into a cash ETF and increased TAO’s weighting to 43.06% in its AI fund, making it the fund’s dominant holding. Neither development provides a near-term price floor, but both reduce the likelihood of a sustained break below key support if broader risk appetite stabilizes.
If $297.5 holds on a daily closing basis, the base case is a retest of the $355 trendline. A confirmed break below $297.5 moves the primary target to $263.7.
