Peace talks with Iran entered their most uncertain phase on Monday as Vice President JD Vance prepared to lead a delegation to Islamabad alongside envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Axios reported, even as Iran’s Foreign Ministry officially said it had “no plans” for a second round and Tehran suspected the invitation was a cover for a surprise US military strike before the expiration of the ceasefire on Wednesday.
Summary
- Two US Air Force C-17 cargo planes landed at a Pakistani air base carrying security equipment on Sunday, and Islamabad’s red zone was locked down with thousands of security personnel deployed in anticipation of the US arrival.
- Trump told Axios, “I feel good. The concept of the deal is finished. I think we have a very good chance of finalizing it,” directly contradicting Iran’s public rejection of negotiations.
- Pakistan’s foreign ministry confirmed that its counterpart spoke by telephone with Iran’s foreign minister on Sunday about “the need for continued dialogue”, leaving a narrow window for Iran to reverse its position.
Iran peace talks enter their most important 48 hours with the expiration of the ceasefire on Wednesday and no Iranian delegation has publicly confirmed it. The American delegation travels anyway. Pakistan has kept Islamabad under security lockdown in anticipation of a second round, with thousands of paramilitaries and military personnel deployed in the red zone.
The U.S. team, the same configuration that led the failed first round on April 11-12, is led by Vance and includes Witkoff and Kushner. Two US Air Force C-17 cargo planes had already landed at a Pakistani air base on Sunday with security equipment and vehicles, signaling that the delegation was determined to arrive whether or not Iran confirmed its participation.
Tehran told intermediaries that it believed the U.S. announcement of negotiations was intended to construct a “blame game” narrative: publicly engaging in negotiations while preparing military strikes to coincide with the expiration of the ceasefire. The seizure of the Touska on Sunday, a few hours after Trump announced negotiations with Pakistan, reinforced these suspicions. Iran’s Foreign Ministry called US statements on the negotiations a “media game.”
Iran’s chief negotiator, Ghalibaf, told state television on Saturday that Iran’s armed forces remained “ready” even as they pursued diplomacy, describing the two paths as simultaneous rather than alternative. The initial ceasefire was announced hours before the midnight deadline, during which Trump had threatened “an entire civilization is going to die tonight.” The Iranian negotiating team arrived at the first round dressed in black, mourning those killed in the war. The level of institutional distrust is not rhetorical.
What Pakistan is trying as mediator
Pakistan has framed this engagement as an ongoing “Islamabad Process” rather than a single discrete cycle, thereby giving itself diplomatic margin to survive a second collapse without the entire framework collapsing. Prime Minister Sharif held talks with Iranian President Pezeshkian on Sunday. Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was the main interlocutor between the delegations throughout the conflict.
Despite Iran’s public rejection, Pakistani authorities have completed red zone security preparations, suggesting that Islamabad has reason to believe Iran could still participate. An Iranian parliamentary official told Al Jazeera that Iran would “probably” send a team on Monday or Tuesday, a gap between the foreign ministry’s statement and the parliamentary official’s remark that Pakistan is actively working to fill.
What the result means for crypto markets
The next 48 hours will determine which scenario plays out for the Bitcoin price markets. An extension of the ceasefire or a real agreement reproduces the model of April 8: oil crashes and a rise in BTC, potentially towards $80,000. A confirmed collapse with the resumption of strikes tests the institutional demand floor below $70,000.
Iran’s nuclear sticking point remains the hardest to overcome: The United States demands that Iran permanently stop uranium enrichment, and Iran has said it will not give up its 440-kilogram stockpile. A second round would require finding a formula, such as third-party custody of the stockpiles, which neither side has publicly endorsed but which both have reportedly discussed through Pakistani intermediaries.
