Bitcoin is retreating from the upper boundary of its ascending channel on Powell’s final day at the FOMC, with a daily bearish MACD crossover now confirmed and price retreating towards key SMA support. This article details what the daily chart is signaling, where prices could be headed, and why the Fed’s transition to new Chairman Kevin Warsh adds a new layer of uncertainty.
Summary
- Bitcoin is trading at $75,834 on April 29, down 0.67% on the session, as a daily bearish MACD crossover confirms that momentum is changing.
- The price has moved away from the upper boundary of the ascending channel and is now pressing the 20 SMA at $75,685 as immediate support.
- If the SMA 20 fails, the next floor is at the SMA 50, near $72,082; a confirmed close above $80,000 invalidates the bearish setup.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $75,834 on April 29, down 0.67% on the day, after hitting a high of $77,904 before sellers regained control ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. The pullback comes as Jerome Powell gives his final FOMC news conference before his term ends on May 15, and the daily MACD histogram turns negative for the first time in several weeks, signaling that the momentum that led to April’s 21% rally is beginning to fade.
MACD Daily Bearish Crossover at Descending Channel Resistance
The daily chart shows Bitcoin navigating two overlapping structures. The ascending channel from the February low near $59,000, defined by two parallel blue trendlines, remains intact and framed the entire rally through April. However, a broader descending channel formed by two red trendlines from the February highs near $85,000 caps the macro recovery, with the 200 SMA at $84,423 sitting inside this upper boundary as major overhead resistance.
Price tested the upper region of the ascending channel near $78,000 on April 28, then pulled back sharply, producing the current session high of $77,904 before sliding to $75,834 at the time of writing. The critical technical development on today’s daily chart is the MACD. The MACD line sits at 1,650.21, the signal line at 1,815.33, and the histogram at -165.13, confirming a bearish crossover on the daily time frame. Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe said on
Key levels: support, resistance and price targets
Immediate support is the 20 SMA at $75,685, which is currently price tight. A daily close below removes the first dynamic buffer and highlights the 50 SMA at $72,082 and the 100 SMA at $72,659, both of which converge in a tight cluster near the $72,000-$73,000 zone that analysts identify as the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A confirmed close below $72,000 would break the ascending channel structure and open a retest of the $65,000-$68,000 range, where strong on-chain accumulation occurred throughout the Iran-led correction in Q1 2026.
On the upside, $80,000 remains the main resistance and bullish target that would invalidate the current bearish MACD reading. Above, the 200 SMA at $84,423 and the upper boundary of the descending red channel represent the macro level that bulls must cross for a confirmed structural trend reversal. A confirmed daily close above $80,000 in volume would bring the short-term bias back towards neutral.
ETF feeds and derivatives context
According to data tracked by crypto.news, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $89.68 million in net outflows on April 28, breaking an eight-day inflow streak that totaled $2.43 billion. Bitcoin fell after eight of the last nine FOMC meetings within 48 hours of the decision, according to data published by Phemex, with the trend driven by traders unwinding their long positioning before the event rather than the rate decision itself. The current pattern, in which BTC entered the FOMC on a 21% rally in April with a Fear and Greed Index near 40, closely mirrors previous patterns that produced the steepest post-meeting declines.
Powell’s exit and Warsh’s uncertainty
This meeting carries an additional layer of uncertainty beyond the rate decision. Powell’s term ends on May 15, and the new chair, Kevin Warsh, is expected to chair the June 16-17 FOMC meeting for the first time. As crypto.news reported, institutional flows proved sensitive to changes in the Fed’s communication tone throughout 2026, with oil prices near $105 per barrel adding further pressure on rate cut expectations. Warsh’s hawkish reputation relative to Powell could move the June dot chart in a direction that tightens the liquidity outlook for risk assets, making the 48-hour post-FOMC window of April 30-May 1 the critical test of whether this pullback stabilizes or extends toward $72,000.
If Bitcoin holds the 20 SMA at $75,685 and reclaims $77,500 at the daily close, the ascending channel remains intact and the bearish MACD crossover could prove to be a temporary signal. A close below $72,082 confirms that a deeper correction is underway.
