PPI is released this morning, the Senate Banking Committee considers the most important US crypto legislation of the year on Thursday, and NVIDIA and Walmart report midweek.
Producer price index (April 2026) – today May 13
The April PPI print arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET this morning. The PPI measures prices received by domestic producers and functions as a proxy for inflation: wholesale cost pressures tend to pass through to consumer prices over time, making it a useful leading indicator rather than a lagging indicator.
The April data comes in a specific macro context. The forward estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2026 shows the economy growing solidly, while the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, came in at 4.5% for the quarter, well above the Fed’s 2% target. The FOMC kept rates between 3.50 and 3.75% at its April 29 meeting and explicitly flagged high inflation in its statement.
The April CPI was released yesterday. In this context, today’s PPI figures reinforce the narrative of rigidity or provide first signs of easing. Traders should note where the sentiment lies relative to the consensus before interpreting any market response.
A higher than expected figure argues in favor of extending the lockdowns and limits the Fed’s room for maneuver ahead of the June 16-17 meeting. A soft print gives some oxygen to the disinflation story. Neither outcome alone solves the problem.
The FOMC minutes, expected around May 20, will provide more details on how the committee assessed the path of inflation during its April 29 deliberations. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and USD-denominated futures pairs.
Senate Banking Committee Markup of the CLARITY Act — Thursday, May 14
On Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET, the Senate Banking Committee meets to consider the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, the bill that would define whether digital assets are securities or commodities, clarify the respective jurisdictions of the SEC and CFTC, and establish a legal operating framework for U.S. crypto markets.
This is the most significant regulatory event for the crypto industry since the GENIUS Act was signed into law in July 2025.
The markup arrives with a specific and recent complication. On May 9, the three largest American banking groups officially rejected the compromise on the yield of the Tillis-Alsobrooks stablecoin, presented as the main step forward to move the bill forward.
Their objection: Stable activity rewards are economically equivalent to interest on deposits, a position that, if it holds enough Republican committee members, could block or reshape the vote. Senate Banking Chairman Tim Scott did not delay the hearing.
There are three realistic outcomes:
- The committee advances the bill without markup, clearing the way for consideration in the Senate and the White House’s July 4 goal of passage.
- The hearing becomes a public amendment session but does not produce a final vote, extending negotiations into the summer.
- The markup stalls, narrowing the legislative window and creating a real risk that the bill will not be approved by the Senate before the midterm election cycle takes over.
The chances of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 were about 60 to 70 percent before this week’s banking lobby backlash.
For traders, the issues are concrete.
Successful markup advances the bill toward a framework that would establish clear rules for crypto exchanges, token classification, and stablecoin issuance in the United States, reducing the regulatory uncertainty that has shaped how institutions approach the asset class.
A dropout prolongs this uncertainty. The DeFi protocol’s specific liability language, ethical provisions, and final stablecoin yield limits will determine how the industry receives the outcome. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, stablecoin pairs.
NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Results – Wednesday May 20
NVIDIA reports its first quarter of fiscal 2027 on Wednesday after the market close, with the conference call beginning at 2:00 p.m. PT. The data center sector, the main driver of recent growth, is the number traders are watching. NVIDIA is the clearest public proxy for AI infrastructure development, and its results carry weight far beyond semiconductors.
The connection to crypto markets is less direct but real. Demand for high-performance computing, investments in energy infrastructure, and risk appetite in the technology sector all influence how institutional capital moves across asset classes.
The consensus revenue estimate is around $78.6 billion. While data center growth demonstrates continued AI investment momentum, this framework tends to support broader risk conditions. If NVIDIA’s results are not satisfactory, the question arises whether the development of AI is moderating, with repercussions on the risk appetite in the markets. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Markets affected on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD.
FOMC Minutes from April 28-29 Meeting — Wednesday, May 20
The April 29 statement kept rates between 3.50 and 3.75 percent, while reporting high inflation and citing developments in the Middle East as a source of economic uncertainty. The minutes will reveal the depth of the internal debate and whether any committee members are looking to the June 16-17 meeting as a potential inflection point.
Key things traders are watching: how the committee weighted the 4.5% first-quarter PCE against growth risks, any discussion about the balance sheet’s trajectory, and the level of consensus versus dissent on the inflation assessment. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Walmart First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Results — Thursday, May 21
Walmart reports ahead of Thursday’s opening. Full-year EPS guidance of $2.75 to $2.85 was set in February; The most actionable signal for retailers will be what management says about price pass-through and consumer behavior.
Walmart’s commentary consistently functions as a leading indicator of how well the U.S. consumer economy absorbs macroeconomic conditions. The lack of prudent guidance on tariff costs adds to the stagflation narrative already established by high PCE and inflation data. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
This week too
The weekly expirations of the standard Deribit options for BTC and ETH fall on Friday May 15 and Friday May 22, both at 08:00 UTC. Traders active in derivatives markets should monitor Deribit open interest data before each date for positioning context.
US markets are closed on Memorial Day, May 25. Cryptocurrency markets trade, but institutional liquidity typically decreases during the holidays.
Final context
The structure of the week is worth noting. Wednesday morning brings PPI. Thursday brings both CLARITY Act markup and retail sales data. Wednesday night brings NVIDIA and Thursday morning brings Walmart. The FOMC minutes complete the macroeconomic picture around May 20.
These events do not operate in isolation: the interaction between inflation data, regulatory news and earnings sentiment determines the environment in which traders operate, not a single data point. Structure your thinking before the start of the week.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading involves risks.
