Ethereum is struggling to hold above $2,150 as selling pressure and market uncertainty continue to weigh on a rally that has now given back a significant portion of its gains from February lows. The price is under pressure – and analyst MorenoDV has published a trade flow analysis that pinpoints exactly where that pressure is coming from and what the data is now showing next.
The observation that anchors the analysis is striking in its concentration. On May 10, while 250,000 ETH were flowing into exchanges across all locations simultaneously, Binance absorbed 225,000, or 90% of all market exchange flows in a single day, concentrated on a single platform. The implication MorenoDV draws from this focus is structural rather than incidental: what is increasingly happening to Ethereum is what is happening to Binance. The exchange has become so dominant in ETH flow dynamics that its behavior effectively defines market behavior.
This observation alone would be significant. But MorenoDV’s analysis identifies a second development – a divergence that has opened up in the data since May 10 – that changes how current price weakness should be interpreted and what Binance flow data is now starting to signal about what’s next.
The divergence is where the bigger story is.
Binance was behind the market fall
The divergence identified by MorenoDV is precise and substantial. Binance moved from the net entry position that characterized the May 10 event to a net exit position, currently taking approximately 12,000 ETH out of the exchange. Meanwhile, the all-exchange aggregate is still showing slightly positive inflows of around 20,000 ETH, meaning the rest of the market continues to absorb slight deposit pressure while the venue that led the withdrawal is now moving in the opposite direction.
Ethereum Exchange Netflow on Binance | Source: CryptoQuant
This asymmetry is the signal. The May 10 withdrawal was not the product of a broad, uniform wave of currency inflows that were equally distributed across the market. It was the product of a single venue absorbing 90% of the flow in a single day – a concentration so extreme that it effectively defines the entire event as a Binance story rather than a market-wide story.
MorenoDV’s framework for interpreting concentrated Binance inflows identifies four possible motivations: execution of a large sell, hedging against existing exposure, forced repositioning triggered by margin or collateral requirements, or active distribution of a large holder reducing their position. Each motivation has different implications for how long selling pressure persists and how well the market recovers.
The return to a clear exit leaves it unclear what motivation drove the May 10 focus, but it does confirm that the dynamic has changed. The exchange that absorbed 225,000 ETH on the downside is now returning coins to the market rather than accumulating more. For Ethereum struggling to hold $2,150, this change in direction in the place that matters most is the data point worth watching more closely.
Ethereum falls below key support
Ethereum is trading near $2,115 after losing the critical $2,150 support region, a breakdown that significantly weakens the recovery structure built throughout April. The daily chart shows ETH falling below the 100-day moving average while remaining firmly below the descending 200-day moving average, confirming that the broader trend continues to favor sellers despite previous rebound attempts.
Ethereum consolidates below key MA | Source: ETHUSDT chart on TradingView
The recovery from February’s capitulation low near $1,800 initially showed constructive momentum, taking Ethereum back towards the $2,300-$2,400 resistance zone. However, the bulls repeatedly failed to regain higher levels, and prices gradually rolled over as buying strength faded below long-term resistance.
The latest decline is notable for the sharp increase in supply pressure near local highs. Volume increased upon rejection from the $2,350 area and remained high as ETH fell, suggesting active distribution rather than passive consolidation. This aligns with recent Binance flow data showing a concentrated wave of ETH inflows arriving on the exchange before the outage accelerated.
Technically, Ethereum is now approaching a decisive support zone between $2,050 and $2,100. Maintaining this region could allow the market to stabilize after the recent rise. However, a confirmed breakdown below would likely expose Ethereum to another move towards the broader demand zone near $1,900-$2,000, where buyers had previously aggressively defended prices following the February crash.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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