Key notes
- OTHERS/BTC appears to have bottomed in Q4 2025.
- Similar patterns were observed ahead of the 2017 and 2021 alternate cycles.
- The monthly MACD turned bullish for the first time in 22 months.
The Altcoin/Bitcoin (OTHERS/BTC) ratio could reach a major bottom in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to market analysts. Interestingly, the same structure has already happened twice, with altcoin prices skyrocketing in both cases.
In the fourth quarter of 2016, OTHERS/BTC reached its lowest level after a long decline. The breakout followed shortly after and altcoins strongly outperformed Bitcoin.
BTC
$93,948
24h volatility:
1.4%
Market capitalization:
$1.87T
Flight. 24h:
$48.82 billion
through the first and second quarters of 2017. The pattern repeated in the fourth quarter of 2020. OTHERS/BTC bottomed, broke its downtrend, and the 2021 alt cycle followed.
The monthly MACD Others/BTC turned bullish for the first time since March 2024.
It looks like a strong alts rally could happen if $BTC holds well. pic.twitter.com/EwLhdMXotg
– Ted (@TedPillows) January 5, 2026
In both cases, the sequence was clear: bottom first, then breakout, then an explosive altcoin breakout.
MACD turns green after almost two years
The monthly moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) on OTHERS/BTC has now turned bullish for the first time in approximately 22 months. The last time the MACD turned positive was in March 2024, and it did not follow through.
MACD bullish crossover on OTHERS/BTC | Source: Bull’s theory of
But this time, the context is different. The decline lasted almost four years. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at its highest oversold level on record and selling pressure has been extreme.
With the current MACD histogram now green and a bullish cross forming, the structure indicates an approaching cycle low. If confirmed, this could turn into an explosive surge in altcoin prices against Bitcoin.
Risk appetite via equities
According to crypto research entity Bull Theory, altcoin cycles never started in isolation but followed changes in demand. The Russell 2000 surpassed previous highs in the fourth quarter of 2016, months before the altcoin surge in 2017. The same sequence occurred in late 2020, ahead of the 2021 alt cycle.
WILL THE ALTSEASON FINALLY HAPPEN IN 2026?
Yes, it’s possible. Let me explain.
1) The historical cycle that most people forget
Altcoin cycles do not start randomly.
They usually start after OTHERS/BTC dips and break out.In the fourth quarter of 2016, ALT/BTC reached its lowest level.
The escape occurred shortly after,… pic.twitter.com/J2nAEGE4Pt– Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) January 5, 2026
This configuration reappeared. The Russell 2000 broke out and held above resistance in Q4 2025. This breakout came a year later than expected, but it finally happened.
Small-cap strength has historically preceded the rotation of capital into higher-risk crypto assets.
Why this cycle was delayed
Many expected an alternate season in 2024. The structure was there, but the conditions were not there. Liquidity was limited. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet continued to shrink. Risk appetite remained weak.
These constraints only began to ease towards the end of 2025, Bull Theory explained. The configuration did not fail. It has progressed. Now the OTHER/BTC low, improving liquidity and equity risk signals are aligning at the same time.
Although it is important to note that none of these signals guarantee an alternate season. They only define the conditions. To continue, Bitcoin must close above the 6-12 month holder cost basis, which currently sits at a price of $100,000.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article is intended to provide accurate and current information, but should not be considered financial or investment advice. Because market conditions can change quickly, we encourage you to verify the information for yourself and consult a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
A crypto journalist with over 5 years of industry experience, Parth has worked with leading media outlets in the crypto and finance world, gaining experience and expertise in the field after surviving both bear and bull markets over the years. Parth is also the author of 4 self-published books.
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