The outlook for altcoins has become increasingly daunting, following a broader market decline that began in early October.
In dollar terms, altcoins have lost over $580 billion since the market sell-off.
Currently, the total altcoin market capitalization stands at $1.19 trillion, representing one of the steepest declines in recent times.
Amid deteriorating market sentiment, a few assets continue to demonstrate resilience, providing insight into broader market dynamics.
October liquidations send altcoins lower
The slowdown in the altcoin’s performance intensified after the October 10 selloff, which wiped out nearly $19 billion in leveraged positions in the market.
The impact remains visible. Despite the continued pressure, CryptoQuant data shows that only 3% of altcoins listed on Binance are currently trading above their 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
In simple terms, this means that only a small fraction of altcoins are holding above their long-term average price, indicating relative strength.
Meanwhile, the broader altcoin market continues to weaken, suggesting that only a limited number of long-term holders remain active.
Source: CryptoQuant
This trend also indicates limited liquidity in the market, which has continued to push prices down.
At the same time, trading around the 20-day SMA, or below, has historically signaled potential rebound zones, creating opportunities for investors to accumulate at lower levels.
The Altcoin Season Index fell to 17%. Historically, similar levels have aligned with market rallies, although the timing of any recovery remains uncertain.
Concentrated gains show
Over a shorter period, data from CoinMarketCap shows that only 10 of the top 99 altcoins have seen gains over the past three months.
Leading performers include Aurelia (BEAT) and Pippin (PIPPIN), both linked to artificial intelligence narratives.
They are followed by Zcash (ZEC), Dash (DASH), and Monero (XMR), which occupy the next positions and focus on privacy-focused use cases.
This trend suggests that investors are looking to specific market narratives rather than the broader altcoin market, reflecting a concentrated capital allocation.
Source: CoinMarketCap
Interest in narrative assets has strengthened as investors evaluate relative performance, and this trend may persist as market fear remains elevated.
The Fear and Greed Index supports this view, with the indicator currently at 29, signaling extreme fear.
Such conditions generally lead investors to favor stable assets or high-conviction positions aligned with dominant narratives.
However, sustained downward pressure in the market could further erode the gains made by these assets over the past 90 days, making a broader recovery essential.
Indicators point to a potential rebound
Technical indicators suggest that a rebound remains possible for altcoins, based on the total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins.
First, the Bollinger Bands (BB) have compressed towards the lower band, marked in green, a level that has historically served as support and often precedes the expansion of volatility.
Additionally, the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) indicator shows continued accumulation activity, signaling continued buying interest despite the recent weakness.
Source: TradingView
The A/D indicator currently reflects a positive trading volume of 136.57 trillion. It is worth noting that this indicator has remained in positive territory, even though the market as a whole has declined over several weeks.
However, based on Bollinger Bands, any rebound could remain brief in the short term, with the altcoin’s total market capitalization potentially rising back to $1.21 trillion, an increase of around $200 billion, over the next few trading sessions.
