Ethereum currently trading above $2,100 at the start of the new month, but one analyst believes the asset’s next major directional move is based on a single price level: one that, if broken, would invalidate years of macro analysis and cause a price collapse to $900.
The countdown that has been going on for a year
According to to an analyst Known as The Penguin, Ethereum’s current price behavior is part of a larger Elliott Wave structure that has been developing for years. The analysis defines Ethereum’s entire price history since 2016 as a developing macro sequence: a completed cycle 1 wave that peaked, followed by a prolonged wave 2 correction playing out as a flat. According to the analyst, this structure is time-consuming, choppy and designed to be frustrating.
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Since Ethereum’s 2021 peak, Ethereum price has largely moved sideways and down while repeatedly teasing fading rallies. The most notable example of this recovery occurred in August 2025, when Ethereum reached new all-time highs. However, this ultimately resulted in a reversal that saw Ethereum fall back below $2,000.
The chart describes the flat trading sequence in detail, mapping the W,
The $1,382 line that changes everything
As the chart above shows, Ethereum price has spent the period since its 2021 high. negotiate under a well-defined horizontal resistance zone between $4,500 and $4,900, with several rallies failing to breach this ceiling. Depressions, on the other hand, have been less uniform, with depressions forming in a more irregular pattern instead of a clear horizontal base.
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However, one level stands out in this structure, namely the low of $1,382 recorded in April 2025. Based on the context of this analysis, this point is referred to as Wave X and serves as the invalidation level of the lower time frame. This is the important price level that will determine whether the price structure continues to drop below the four-digit mark.
As long as Ethereum remains above, the wave 2 scenario will be valid and Ethereum price can still move into a new impulsive upward cycle. The price target in this case is a push up to $8,400.
However, a break below $1,382 would invalidate the entire wave count. ETH would need lose about a third of its value to reach this level, but given the 29% drop in Q1 2026 and the February 6 low of $1,743, it is not out of reach. under persistent selling pressure.
If this invalidation level fails, the analyst’s projection indicates a bearish break below $900, with Fibonacci extensions on the chart indicating lows between $800 and $500.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
