Arthur Hayes: Crypto market will peak ‘mid to late March’

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes now believes that crypto markets will peak in mid-March and then undergo a “severe” correction.

His latest essay begins by explaining how skiing conditions in Japan are threatened by a type of bamboo known as “sasa.”

Hayes explains that heavy snowfall in Hokkaido allowed resorts to open prematurely – and drawing parallels with crypto, he argues that a correction he predicted also arrived sooner than expected .

Last month, the entrepreneur warned that painful selling would occur when Donald Trump took office, with investors abruptly realizing that the president could not deliver on all his promises for cryptocurrencies.

But he now estimates that this so-called “Trump dumping” has already taken place, from mid-December until the end of the year.

On Substack, Hayes writes that increased dollar liquidity in the first three months of 2025 has the potential to offset disappointment with White House policy and create “positive momentum” for crypto.

“Team Trump’s disappointment on its pro-crypto and pro-business bill may be offset by an overwhelmingly positive dollar liquidity environment, an increase of up to $612 billion in the first quarter,” adds- he.

And as for putting that into practice as a crypto trader, Hayes says late March will be the time to sell “and relax on the beach.”

Explaining his strategy as Maelstrom’s chief investment officer, Hayes said he would now “encourage the fund’s risk takers to turn the risk dial toward DEGEN” and ape decentralized scientific “shitcoins” (DeSci).

Hayes then admitted that his latest essay marks a turnaround on how Trump will affect crypto markets — and while he says he may be a “crappy prognosticator of the future,” at least he’s ingesting new information and change of opinion. before opportunities are missed.

“Imagine making a hole-in-one every time you hit a golf ball, making every three-point shot in basketball or off-break, and always potting every ball when playing pool. Life would be excruciatingly boring,” he wrote.

This is not the first time that Hayes has admitted to having a low accuracy rate in his predictions (25% in 12 months, at one point). But in his eyes, all that matters is bringing “hopefully a little more success than failure.”

Edited by Stacy Elliott.