Conventional wisdom dictates that veteran holders do not give in to weakness. They accumulate during withdrawals, reap gains during euphoria, and stand still while new cohorts compete.
At the end of 2025, we are testing this model. In Ethereum,
Distribution without surrender
What makes this moment distinct is not the selling out, as the veterans are still rotating, but the timing and composition.
Ethereum whales accumulated 460,000 ETH as the price fell below $3,200 in mid-November, but Santiment’s consumed age metric has slowed rather than increased.
This divergence is important: if fewer very old coins move while overall whale balances rise, the pressure comes from holders in shrinking positions of the three- to ten-year bands rather than dumping from ICO-era wallets.
Glassnode data shows that these mid-term cohorts are selling around 45,000 ETH per day, a measured pace that contrasts with the panic spikes seen earlier in the year, when short- and long-term holders exited simultaneously.
XRP tells the opposite story. Dormant circulation for the 365-day cohort reached its highest level since July as whales transferred months-old holdings to Binance, reactivating supply that had been intact during the previous rally.
CryptoQuant’s 100-day simple moving average for the Whale-to-Exchange Flow metric peaked on November 6, signaling a multi-month uptrend and suggesting the distribution is structural rather than episodic.
When combined with the reactivation of dormant supply on the one-year-plus and three-to-twelve-month tranches, the trend is clear: XRP’s movements in 2025 have consistently attracted older holders who had waited for consolidation and now view exits as a rational trade.
Although the flow of whale trade has eased, it remains among the highest levels seen in 2025.
The trade-off inherent in these flows is simple. Ethereum whales rotate and older holders sell in force as new buyers enter at higher base prices, creating a realized cap floor on the rise even as the price consolidates.
XRP whales are distributing into a market where laggards already hold most of the cap realized at high prices, leaving no absorption cushion if spot demand continues to fade.
Cap made as the structure reveals
The realized cap measures the overall base cost of all pieces, weighted by the price at which they were last moved. For assets that have built true cost scales over multiple cycles, the realized cap acts as long-term support.
For assets that have printed most of their realized cap in a single burst, the structure is fragile: when the highest cohort sells, there is little below.
Ethereum’s realized cap was $391 billion as of November 18, according to Santiment, absorbing distribution from older holders via new inflows even as prices fell sideways.
This continued accumulation at various entry points means that the network retains cost base diversity, short-term holders are more exposed if another decline materializes, but veteran cohorts that shrink to $3,200 do not collapse the entire structure because new participants have filled the gap at mid-levels.
XRP’s realized cap nearly doubled from $30 billion to $64 billion during the late 2024 rally, with $30 billion coming from buyers who entered in the last six months.
At the start of 2025, parts less than 6 months old represented 62.8% of the realized ceiling, compared to 23%, concentrating the cost base at the peaks of the cycle. Glassnode’s realized profit-to-loss ratio has been trending downward since January, indicating that new entrants are now realizing losses rather than gains.
When whales send old coins to exchanges in November, reactivating dormant supply precisely when laggards find themselves underwater, the observed ceiling imbalance becomes the central vulnerability.
Dormancy as a leading indicator
Dormancy measurements track when previously inactive supply re-enters active circulation. Peaks in these indicators do not automatically signal highs, but rather a change in regime.
When holders who have resisted previous cycles decide that conditions warrant an exit, their movement often precedes a broader distribution because they operate over longer time horizons and larger positions than retail cohorts.
Ethereum’s consumption age spikes in September and October came from ICO-era wallets finally moving after years of inactivity, but these moves happened in force rather than in panic.
By mid-November, as whales holding between 1,000 and 100,000 ETH accumulated over 1.6 million ETH, the consumed age metric calmed down, meaning that large flows were driven by the turnover of large holders rather than the capitulation of old wallets.
This creates a floor: if the oldest cohorts do not sell and the medium-term whales buy, spot absorption can allow profit taking measured over the three to ten year period.
XRP’s dormancy pattern has broken down in the other direction. Dormant 365-day circulation reached levels not seen since July, with repeated red spikes as old coins woke up and moved to exchanges.
Reactivations became more frequent as price struggled to hold above $2, suggesting that holders who witnessed the consolidation decided that the risk-reward no longer justified their patience.
When dormancy peaks coincide with weakening spot demand and a very high realized cap, the signal is unambiguous: veterans are distributing their products into a market that cannot absorb them without breaking price support.
Who holds the bag
If Ethereum’s distribution continues at the current pace, with three to ten year holders selling 45,000 ETH per day while whales accumulate and complete capital raises, the result is a market with higher long-term support but increased short-term volatility.
New entrants between $3,000 and $3,500 become the marginal sellers if prices fall, while veteran cohorts have large enough unrealized gains to withstand further decline.
If reactivations of XRP’s dormant supply persist while the realized cap remains concentrated among holders holding holdings for six months or more, the path narrows.
Each wave of veteran distribution pushes recent buyers further underwater. Since these recent buyers represent the majority of the realized cap, their capitulation would bring down the cost base floor rather than simply testing it.
The risk is self-reinforcing: whales distribute, laggards sell at a loss, realized capitalization declines, and the next cohort of holders faces an even weaker support structure.
For protocols like Aave, where dormancy data remains scarce, a single address crystallizing $1.54 million in losses by selling 15,396 AAVE in a downtrend signals forced or fear-driven exits from recent entrants, not long-term holders reaping gains.
When these losses occur while the asset is trading below all major moving averages and broader DeFi risk appetite deteriorates, late-cycle capital withdraws rather than rotates.
Who decides the ground
The central question is whether this cycle’s dormant supply reactivations represent a healthy rotation, veteran holders exiting with profits while new capital enters at higher levels, or the start of a broader deleveraging where the heaviest realized capitalizations collapse under sustained distribution.
Ethereum data suggests older coins are moving. Yet the bulk of recent flows come from shrinking mid-term whales rather than dumping old portfolios, and the increase in the realized cap confirms that new money continues to arrive on average.
XRP data suggests that inactivity spikes attract holders older than a year, while 62.8% of the realized cap belongs to buyers who entered in the last six months.
The outcome depends on which cohort blinks first. If new entrants hold up and spot demand stabilizes, veteran distribution is absorbed and the market builds a higher floor through turnover.
If laggards capitulate before veteran sellers exhaust themselves, the realized cap decreases, the depth of the cost base evaporates, and the next support level lies well below the current price.
The whales are agitated. Whether it’s a rotation or a rout depends on who’s left to catch what they’re selling.
