Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chugani say Bitcoin (BTC) may have already found its bottom with the 50% retracement seen since last October, and the company is sticking to its ambitious price target of $150,000 by the end of 2026 for the cryptocurrency.
The firm argued that changing market structure – moving from retail-driven speculation to speculation increasingly supported by exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate balance sheets, and structured capital – is changing Bitcoin’s behavior during downturns and could prolong the current cycle.
Do institutional flows change BTC price behavior?
Bitcoin has spent the past few months consolidating between around $65,000 and $75,000 after several failed attempts to break higher resistance walls at $76,000 last week. Despite this, Bernstein Remarks the liquidation did not experience the cascade of liquidations that characterized previous cycles.
Analysts view this moderate volatility as evidence that the market has matured: Long-term holders dominate supply, ETFs now represent significant ownership, and institutional on-ramps have added more stable sources of demand.
Bernstein highlighted several concrete steps to support his outlook. The firm estimates that nearly 60% of The BTC supply has been inactive for over a year, a concentration of long-term holders that tends to smooth out short-term price fluctuations.
ETFs are also shaping the property landscape; collectively, they hold approximately 6.1% of the total Bitcoin supply, which Bernstein believes improves market stability.
According to analysts, these institutional flows help Bitcoin “outperform” even during corrections, as analysts show. exchange traded fund This year, outflows have reversed and bank-led product and custody offerings have expanded.
$200,000 worth of Bitcoin possible by 2027
Another focal point of Bernstein’s analysis is the role of publicly traded companies accumulating Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder, has received particular attention.
Bernstein reaffirmed an outperform rating and $450 target for the company, and noted how it overcame the roughly 50% decline from last October’s high. Analysts say the strategy’s resilience stems in part from how it sources capital.
According to Bernstein, Strategy’s purchases this year at times exceeded new Bitcoin issuance, meaning the company absorbed a substantial portion of the additional supply even as prices fell.
But Bernstein also warns of the attendant risks. A prolonged slowdown could force company owners to refinance debt on less favorable terms or sell stakes as bonds mature, and a tightening of capital markets could reduce companies’ ability to raise new funds.
So far, Bernstein says, Strategy has managed these exposures conservatively and has shown the ability to weather deep correction cycles without overextending its leverage.
Taken together, these developments lead Bernstein to a bullish medium-term view. The company continues to wait for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2026, potentially peaking near $200,000 by the end of 2027.
This scenario relies on sustained institutional demand from ETFs, continued accumulation from corporates, and maturing market infrastructure that reduces the likelihood of further sell-offs.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Editorial process as Bitcoinist focuses on providing thoroughly researched, accurate and unbiased content. We follow strict sourcing standards and every page undergoes careful review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance and value of our content to our readers.
