Bitcoin
BTC
$68,058
24h volatility:
1.2%
Market capitalization:
$1.36 million
Flight. 24h:
$49.60 billion
and the broader crypto market are bracing for potential volatility as traders await delayed US inflation data from January, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report now scheduled for this week. BTC is hovering around $68,000, struggling to establish a solid floor after a correction triggered by changing macroeconomic expectations.
Fed rate cuts still likely, but no rush, says UBS
Declining U.S. inflation should keep the Federal Reserve on track to cut rates despite strong jobs data, according to UBS Global Wealth Management. He expects two 25 basis point cuts in June and September, supporting stocks, bonds and gold.…
– *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 12, 2026
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The market is interested in US inflation data and the Fed’s trajectory
The reported BLS inflation figure took on outsized significance after January’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, 130,000 nonfarm payroll additions and unemployment falling to 4.3%, pushing back expectations for short-term rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and bolstering prospects for “higher for longer” interest rates. Traders are assessing whether the CPI will support the Fed’s 2% target or confirm lingering inflationary pressures.
Adding another level of complexity, President Trump’s nomination of pro-Bitcoin advocate Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair (effective after May) introduces possible long-term changes in monetary policy that could influence risk asset sentiment and the trajectory of Bitcoin in the months to come.
NEW: Job growth INCREASED in January, adding 130,000 total nonfarm jobs and 172,000 private sector jobs – once again beating expectations.
The unemployment rate has fallen. Wages have increased. Federal employment is now at its lowest level since 1966.
It’s the Trump economy 📈📈📈 pic.twitter.com/JxyUYGE1c9
– Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) February 11, 2026
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Potential market scenarios – Bitcoin price towards $60,000?
Bitcoin Price Action Source: TradingView
If tomorrow’s CPI data is “above” 2.5%, a break below the psychological floor of $60,000 is likely. This level represents a critical support zone where institutional “buy the dip” orders are concentrated. Conversely, lower-than-expected inflation could cause a move back towards the $74,400 resistance level.
Data from the CME FedWatch tool currently shows a nearly 95% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% in the near term.
Target rate probabilities for March 18, 2026 Fed meeting Source: FedWatch
Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, warned that “good news” for the economy, such as robust growth or sticky prices, is currently treating markets as “bad news” by delaying liquidity injections.
While some analysts say the crypto winter that began in January 2025 is showing signs of recovery, immediate price action remains tied to this week’s critical data release.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article is intended to provide accurate and current information, but should not be considered financial or investment advice. Because market conditions can change quickly, we encourage you to verify the information for yourself and consult a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Daniel Frances is a technical writer and Web3 educator specializing in macroeconomics and DeFi mechanics. Hailing from crypto since 2017, Daniel leverages his experience in on-chain analytics to write evidence-based reports and in-depth guides. He holds certifications from the Blockchain Council and is dedicated to providing “insight gain” that overcomes market hype to find real utility for blockchain.
