Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Bitcoin (BTC) appears poised to create a new all-time high (ATH), charged by the positive seasonality of Q4 2024.
Bitcoin new ATH on the horizon?
On October 28, BTC surpassed $71,000, sparking optimism for a new ATH above the high of $73,737 recorded in March this year. Although BTC has crossed the $70,000 threshold several times since then, it has yet to set a new ATH.
According to a recent report Coming from cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, Bitcoin could be on track for a new ATH soon after the US presidential election. Bitcoin is often considered a “Trump exchange,” exhibiting a strong correlation with Donald Trump’s chances of being elected.
For example, after a 6% drop last week, BTC regained all its losses, coinciding with Trump’s election chances increasing on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform.
At the time of writing, Trump led with a 66.1% chance of winning against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who stands at 33.9%. However, opinion polls show a close race, making the outcome of the election uncertain.
A possible Trump victory shakes up the options market. According to the report, although short-term volatility may increase as the election results approach, BTC’s long-term bullish outlook remains intact. He specifies:
Options expiring on key dates around elections result in higher premiums, with implied volatility should peak to 100 daily flights on November 8, just after Election Day – indicating that the market is bracing for possible turbulence. Regardless of the election outcome, short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, although we remain confident in long-term price appreciation.
It is worth highlighting that BTC fell to $52,756 in September. However, the leading digital asset rose nearly 30% in October, inspiring some confidence in the “Until” narrative.
Seasonality is on Bitcoin’s side
The report highlights that BTC stands to benefit from “favorable seasonality in the fourth quarter.” Historically, the fourth quarter has been profitable for BTC for a period of half, yielding a median quarterly return of 31.34%.
The accumulation of call options expiring on December 27 – especially at the $80,000 strike price – also reinforces BTC’s bullish outlook for Q4 2024. The report adds:
As options open interest climbs to new heightsThe market is showing signs of positioning for a post-election surge, potentially propelling Bitcoin towards – and beyond – its all-time high of $73,666.
In similar news earlier this month, crypto research firm K33 Research REMARK that the latest positive developments in the FTX fiasco propel Bitcoin’s bullish narrative into the fourth quarter.
BTC is trading at $71,110 at press time, up 3.1% in the last 24 hours and around 3.5% from its current ATH. If BTC will do it continue its upward trend during the rest of the quarter or facing another rejection remains to be seen.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from Polymarket and TradingView.com
