With a 16.77% loss for November, returns are in line with the 16.23% loss for November 2022, following the FTX exchange disaster. However, no event of this magnitude has occurred this year. In fact, the fall in Bitcoin prices cannot be attributed to any specific event related to the crypto sector.
Nearly two months ago, on October 6, the BTC price reached an all-time high of $126,198, only to fall to $82,000 on November 21, a low last seen in early April of this year. In other words, Bitcoin has suffered its 13th death cross since 2011.
A week ago, we posited that Bitcoin could regain its footing above the $90,000 resistance zone, a level currently being tested as Bitcoin gained 5.5% over the week to reach the current price of $91,464. Making this one of the shortest bearish periods, Bitcoin’s defensive zone still lies in the $83,000-$85,000 range.
According to the Polymarket Pledge, most people are betting on BTC reaching $100,000 by the end of the year, with a probability of 48%, while 34% are betting on a price below $80,000. Let’s look at what factors might be at play in either direction.
Bitcoin Crash Amid Strong Fundamentals
While there is a distinct lack of specific events to blame for this month’s Bitcoin crash, it didn’t come out of nowhere. It’s safe to say that President Trump’s sudden announcement of additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports was the main catalyst. This occurred on October 10, in response to the ongoing issue of China’s control of critical rare earth elements (REEs).
In late October, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached an agreement that tariffs would effectively be lowered while China ended its blockade on rare earths. However, initial tactical bluster in early October triggered a cascade of liquidations of nearly $20 billion.
In turn, this pressure transferred to outflows from spot-traded Bitcoin ETFs, which began to reverse on Wednesday.
In short, President Trump’s threatened trading position canceled “Uptober”, thereby drying up liquidity through liquidations of long positions. Throughout 2025, this theme has been consistent, even to the point where President Trump is seen by some as influencing markets to benefit those around him.
In both cases, November was a continuation of canceled Uptober. Deutsche Bank analyst Marion Laboré highlighted on Monday the particularity of the decline in the price of Bitcoin this time.
“Unlike previous crashes, driven primarily by retail speculation, this year’s downturn has occurred against a backdrop of significant institutional participation, political developments and global macroeconomic trends.”
In other words, sentiment now plays a greater role than in previous periods. And this sentiment is largely driven by short-term holders (STH), who are more sensitive to volatility and capitulations. Currently, the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP) is $104,000 against the BTC price of $91.4,000.
In other words, the typical “get my money back” feeling of STH could still derail Bitcoin rallies. In other words, if institutional players do not counteract the liquidity dynamic induced by STHs by publishing significant offers (purchases). Some indicators are already pointing in this direction.
Institutional recommitment to digital scarcity
A period of extreme fear is always the best time to gain exposure to an asset that is even more limited in supply than gold. When Bitcoin fell to $87,000 on November 20, the Texas Blockchain Council purchased $10 million worth of BTC through BlackRock’s ETF.
Similarly, New Hampshire’s Business Finance Authority (BFA) launched the first-ever $100 million BTC-backed municipal bond on November 17. Before the stock market crash at the end of September, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council (ADIC) had tripled its IBIT exposure to 8.7 million shares.
During the same period, Harvard University, through Harvard Management Company, did the same, increasing its stake by 260%, to 6.81 million IBIT shares. In subsequent files that will be disclosed later, it is likely that we will see many institutional re-engagements during this period of crisis.
Such reengagements could accelerate, especially if catalyzed again by President Trump.
Fed Guard Change
Although he facilitated the October sell-off with the threat of tariffs, President Trump’s support for the crypto sector during the presidential campaign and afterward served as the primary macroeconomic backdrop that contributed to Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000. During the week, rumors reignited that President Trump would likely appoint a new Federal Reserve chairman by Christmas.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted Tuesday that this scenario has a “very good chance” of happening, with Jerome Powell likely to be replaced by National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett.
Over the years, we have covered the public feud between Trump and Powell extensively. Even though it was Trump himself who nominated him during his first term, he targeted Powell as “grossly incompetent” and “a complete idiot,” to name a few choice labels.
The main stumbling block has been Powell’s refusal to bring the federal funds rate to ultra-low levels around 1%. In this context, Hassett is therefore likely aligned with the interest rate regime favored by President Trump.
And given that the market has yet to price in this phenomenon, accelerated rate cuts are likely to trigger a shift in risk asset flows that Bitcoin historically responds to first. After all, the resulting drop in yields increases the relative attractiveness of scarce, yield-free assets such as gold, and even more so Bitcoin, which exhibits deterministic scarcity.
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