According to Bitwise, Bitcoin’s price fluctuations are increasingly smaller, and this change is already visible compared to a fast-moving chip stock like Nvidia.
From a low of $75,000 in April to a high of $126,000 in early October, Bitcoin rose by around 68%. Nvidia, on the other hand, swung about 120%, from a low of nearly $94 in April to $207 in late October. These numbers show a clear gap in the difficulty of the course this year.
Volatility comparison shows change
According to Bitwise reports, Bitcoin will likely be calmer than Nvidia in 2026. “BTC is already less volatile than Nvidia in 2025… thanks to institutional flows and ETFs,” Bitwise said in an X article.
This shift is linked to more traditional money coming in through products like spot ETFs and other institutional channels. In short: larger and more stable investors are now present, which tends to smooth out wild swings.
🚀Bitcoin is maturing quickly!
Bitwise: BTC already less volatile than Nvidia in 2025 (68% price change versus 120%) thanks to institutional flows and ETFs.
Volatility to Remain Lower in 2026 + New All-Time High Coming as Crypto Stocks Outperform Tech! 🐂 #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto… pic.twitter.com/TEyzoZQrYv
– ChartSage (@CryptoChartSage) December 18, 2025
Institutional entry and the Bull affair
Bitwise also presented a bullish outlook for next year. He expects a new all-time high and a break from the old four-year cycle. The firm listed several reasons: the halving, changes in interest rate cycles, and weaker boom-bust forces than in previous cycles.
The firm named large institutions – Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch – as potential new entrants, and said allocations to spot crypto ETFs are expected to increase. Bitwise added that on-chain work could also accelerate and crypto stocks could beat tech stocks in terms of returns.
Long-time holders are selling
The reports revealed heavy selling by long-term holders, a trend that complicates the bullish story. K33 Research found that around 1.6 million rooms unused for at least two years had been moved since the start of 2023.
K33 Research Reports Reactivation of Bitcoin Supply. Source: Bloomberg
This amount represents approximately $140 billion. In 2025 alone, nearly $300 billion worth of coins that have been dormant for more than a year have returned to the market, according to data from K33 and CryptoQuant.
CryptoQuant also reported one of the largest long-term distributions seen in over five years over the past 30 days.
Chris Newhouse, director of research at Ergonia, described this flow as a “slow hemorrhage” caused by steady selling into weak offerings, which can create a long, sharp fall that is not easy to reverse.
Market Divergence and Short-Term Pressure
The divide with stocks is clear. Nvidia shares are up about 27% year to date. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is down about 8% year to date and has fallen almost 30% from its all-time high above $126,000.
This gap shows that cryptography does not always evolve with big technologies. Selling by long-term holders is one reason prices are under pressure, even as some investors seek further gains.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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