Bitcoin (BTC-USD) extended its losses on Friday as the world’s largest cryptocurrency fell more than 24% from its all-time high north of $126,000 in October.
The token fell below $95,000 at a session low on Friday, alongside a stock market rout driven by uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve will cut rates. The cryptocurrency was trading above $96,000 at midday.
The steady decline came as Bloomberg data showed outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) hit their second-highest daily level on Thursday.
The token has struggled to recover since last month’s sharp sell-off, triggered by leveraged liquidations and sales by large long-term holders.
Data tracked by 10X Research shows “there are currently no significant marginal buyers stepping in.”
“This aligns perfectly with the multiple on-chain indicators we are tracking, which confirm that Bitcoin is in a bear market regime,” 10X Research said in a note to clients Friday morning.
The company warns that if bitcoin falls below $93,000, it could fall even further in the near term.
Without an interest rate cut in December and more dovish measures from the Fed in the coming months, 10X Research sees no reason to rally in the near term.
Learn more: How the Fed’s Rate Decision Affects Your Bank Accounts, Loans, Credit Cards, and Investments
“We believe there is now a high probability that the Fed will remain on hold. If this happens, it effectively eliminates the likelihood of a classic Bitcoin Christmas rally,” the note said.
Even Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell has become more cautious about the crypto market, telling investors that “the momentum or lack of momentum for Bitcoin right now is an issue.”
“I think we’re also in a scenario where there’s just an absence of catalysts,” he said in a video sent to clients Thursday.
The strategist points out that the government shutdown lasted longer than investors expected, and that it will take time for increased liquidity from the resumption of spending to seep into the economy.
The strategist said a broader risk aversion event could reset valuations and bring buyers back.
“I think a return to the low $90,000 range for BTC could be enough to do the trick here,” Farrell said.
Ines Ferre is a senior economics reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on @ines_ferre.
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