Several constraint points are convergent:
- The funding of venture capital (VC), although increasing compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, remains 50 to 60% below the levels of 2021–22.
- The liquidity conditions are tightened, in particular for small projects.
- Macro -contrary winds – including growing global prices and macroeconomic uncertainty – have paralyzed risk appetite.
More speculative corners of the market, such as tokens used for decentralized physical infrastructure networks (depins), the same and the parts used for agents of artificial intelligence (AI), were the most difficult. Their underperformance highlights the growing prudence of investors.
Kar Yong Ang, financial market analyst at Octa Broker, explains: “At present, the market clearly sees more value in Bitcoin compared to the rest of the cryptographic universe. The global macroeconomic situation is very unstable, the price drama taking place and the increase in protectionism potentially threatening the status of reserve currency of the US dollar. Consequently, the capital of investors has migrated high-risk cryptographic spaces such as Bitcoin alt-cores at relatively low risk. In fact, bitcoin has become a kind of “safe coin” on the cryptography market ‘.
Indeed, wider financial markets are increasingly concerned about the deterioration of American twin deficits (tax and commercial), which are both on an unbearable trajectory. Yields on 20-year-old American state bonds increased above 5.15% on May 22, almost a two-year summit, while the US dollar index (DXY) fell below the 100 Critical brand, reflecting confidence in the USD safe security status. In addition, the Moody’s classification agency lowered the sovereign American note, an “AAA” notch in “AA1” due to concerns about the growing debt of the country.
At the same time, most cryptocurrencies continue to act as high beta proxies for global feeling, and in the global macroeconomic environment of today, this sensitivity turns out to be a significant front wind. The tariff disputes between the United States and China, macroeconomic uncertainty and the drop in performance market performance all contribute to a reduction in overall risk appetite, which negatively impacted most cryptocurrencies. However, Bitcoin seems to be a major exception in this regard.
Kar Yong Ang explains: “At the beginning, the Rally of the BTC seemed very speculative: the market had reacted positively to the softer position of Trump towards the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the American trade agreement. Later, however, Bitcoin became the only major cryptography currency to establish a new summit of all time. He suggests a continuous flight to security perceived in the universe of cryptography, while alt-coin flows remain reduced ”.
However, the current macroeconomic uncertainty and the potential failure of the United States to resolve its trade tensions with China and the European Union (EU) could act as an immediate catalyst, potentially triggering a renewed lower phase for bitcoin. Most recently, the threat of American president Donald Trump to impose prices of 50% on the EU launched a classic risk decision – a sale at BTCUSD and a rally in Xauusd.
Long -term merchants and investors should closely monitor:
- total market capitalization, excluding BTC
- Funding VC Flucations
- Titles impacting regulatory executives in the United States, EU and Southeast Asia
- Any news linked to current trade disputes and the possibility of commercial negotiations.
Tactical patience will be essential this summer. To rush to buy Bitcoin now can be reckless, but buying the dips carefully is more reasonable. The key levels to be monitored are 105,000, 98,000, 94,000, 89,000 and 84,000.
Reminder of conformity: Difference negotiation contracts (CFD) include a high level of risk and may not suit all investors. Emotional trading can increase this risk. Always exchange your means and understand the risks involved.
Octa is an international broker that provides online trading services worldwide since 2011. It has been offering commission access to financial markets and various services used by customers in 180 countries that have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its customers achieve their investment objectives, Octa offers free educational webinaries, articles and analytical tools.
The company is involved in a complete network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, in particular the improvement of educational infrastructure and short -term rescue projects supporting local communities.
Since its foundation, Octa has won more than 100 prizes, including the most reliable “Broker 2024” price by Global Forex Awards and the Prix du Magazine Global Brand Magazine.
