Bitcoin is up more than 12% from last week’s sharp decline to the $80,000 low, providing the market with a brief moment of relief after an intense period of capitulation. Despite this rebound, fear and uncertainty continue to dominate sentiment, especially after what analysts describe as the largest capitulation of short-term holders in Bitcoin history.
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This wave of realized losses – rapid, aggressive and unprecedented – has left many investors wondering whether the recent rally is sustainable or just a temporary rebound in a broader downtrend.
According to new data from Glassnode, the road ahead remains difficult. Analysts explain that Bitcoin must surpass major supply hubs created by major buyers earlier in the cycle if it is to regain significant upward momentum.
These clusters represent areas where a large number of investors were previously buying at higher prices and may now look to exit at a standstill, increasing the likelihood of strong selling pressure as BTC climbs.
Bitcoin faces critical supply barriers
Glassnode reports that Bitcoin is now closing in on two major supply hubs that will play a decisive role in determining whether the recent rebound can evolve into a sustainable recovery. The first group is between $93,000 and $96,000, while the second, much larger and more structurally important, spans between $100,000 and $108,000.
These areas were formed by strong buying activity early in the cycle and represent areas where many investors are currently underwater or near break-even.
For this reason, Glassnode notes that these ranges generally act as strong resistance, as recent buyers who experienced the latest decline may choose to sell once the price returns to their entry levels. This dynamic can create temporary supply barriers, slowing momentum even in moments of aggressive recovery.
Bitcoin’s ability to break through these clusters will determine whether it can reestablish the path to a new all-time high or whether it remains trapped under strong distribution pressure. The market is now entering a critical phase, with traders closely monitoring BTC’s behavior as it approaches these levels. A clear breakout would be a sign of renewed confidence, while a rejection could indicate that the broader corrective structure is not yet complete.
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Test support after strong multi-week sale
Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a market attempting to stabilize after one of the most aggressive pullbacks of the cycle. BTC has rebounded to the $91,500 area after a deep advance into the $80,000 region last week, signaling that buyers are finally stepping in on key support. This rebound coincides with a strong weekly candle showing a long lower shadow, a classic sign of demand absorption during heavy selling.
However, despite this rebound, the structure as a whole remains fragile. The price is trading below the 50-week moving average, a level that previously served as reliable support throughout the bull run. The loss of this dynamic support earlier this month was a significant technical breakout, and BTC is now trying to reclaim it from below – typically a difficult move that often acts as resistance.
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The 100-week moving average around the $80,000 region proved critical, stopping the decline and serving as the main area where buyers defended the trend. As long as BTC maintains above this zone, the market as a whole avoids confirming a deeper macroeconomic reversal.
Volume remains high, reflecting capitulating activity, and the market is now in a decisive phase. A sustained close above $92,000 to $94,000 would bolster recovery prospects, while a rejection risks retesting the $80,000 support.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
