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Home»Market»Bitcoin Open Interest Falls 31%, Signals Bullish Reset
Market

Bitcoin Open Interest Falls 31%, Signals Bullish Reset

January 17, 2026No Comments
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The analyst warned that if Bitcoin continues to fall and fully enters a bear market, open interest could contract further,

Bitcoin News

According to CryptoQuant analysis, open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has declined 31% since October, creating a deleveraging signal that historically marks market lows and sets the stage for a potential bullish recovery.

Declining open interest on Bitcoin derivatives is helping purge excess leverage built up in the market, the on-chain analytics provider said on Wednesday. Crypto analyst Darkfost noted that such declines have often historically marked significant lows, effectively resetting the market and creating a stronger foundation for an eventual bullish recovery.

The analyst warned that if Bitcoin continues to fall and fully enters a bear market, open interest could contract further, signaling deeper deleveraging and a potential extension of the correction. Open interest refers to the number or value of crypto derivatives contracts that remain unsettled and open.

Deleveraging reduces the risk of cascading liquidations that could trigger sharp price falls, similar to those of the October 10 crash. Last year’s speculative frenzy in crypto derivatives led to a surge in open interest in Bitcoin, which reached an all-time high of over $15 billion on October 6, the analyst noted.
During the previous bull market peak in November 2021, Bitcoin open interest on a major exchange peaked at $5.7 billion, meaning OI will nearly triple in 2025. Rising prices with falling open interest often indicate that leveraged short positions are being liquidated or closed, removing selling pressure from the market.

This short squeeze scenario may be bullish because it suggests that the price rise is driven by spot buying rather than excessive leverage, making the rally more sustainable. Bitcoin spot prices have increased by almost 10% since the start of this year, confirming this theory.

On the Deribit Bitcoin options markets, OI is highest at the $100,000 strike price with a notional value of $2.2 billion, suggesting traders are bullish as there are more long calls than short puts. However, crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live reported on Wednesday that the derivatives market has not yet entered a structurally bullish phase.
The total Bitcoin OI across all exchanges and derivatives markets currently stands at around $65 billion, according to CoinGlass. That’s down about 28% from a peak of just over $90 billion in early October, which matches CryptoQuant’s percentages.

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