THE The price of Bitcoin has already collapsed up more than 32.5% from last year’s all-time high above $126,000, towards the $85,000 region. Although the cryptocurrency has recovered slightly and is now trading above $90,000crypto analyst predicted another major price crash in 2026. Bitcoin could fall 50%, following trends observed during previous cycles, potentially bottoming out near $40,000.
Bitcoin price set for 50% crash
Bitcoin Could Face Another Price Correction as technical indicators continue to signal a strong bear market. CryptoBullet Market Expert warns that Bitcoin’s bear market behavior is not over, with a deeper pullback aligned with long-term on-chain trends.
CryptoBullet bases its view on Price realized by Bitcoina measure that reflects the average price at which all coins in circulation last moved. He explained that this level constitutes a key reference when bear markets and presents historically marked areas where the price eventually collapses before forming a bottom.
Looking at past cycles, he noted that Bitcoin has consistently fallen below its realized price during bear markets. Decreases reached 66% in 2011, 48% in 2015, 35% in 2018 and 33% in 2022, indicating a steady trend for prices to fall below this level. Due to this repeated decline, the analyst believes that the next bearish crash will follow the same pattern, triggering a 50% drop to $40,000 for Bitcoin this year.
Another major factor supporting CryptoBullet’s analysis is Bitcoin’s Declining Volatility over time. He noted that the gap between the market price and the realized price has gradually narrowed, from a gap of 66% in 2011 to around 33% in 2022.
Because of this trend, the analyst does not expect the bear market this year to be as severe as the decline seen in previous cycles. Instead, he estimates that Bitcoin could fall 24-31% below the realized price, placing its likely low in the $40,000-$43,000 range.
Extreme bear market scenario
With a realized price currently near $56,000, CryptoBullet also warned that Bitcoin could fall further below $40,000 this year. The analyst noted that if the market repeats itself the bear market of 2022a 33% drop below the realized price would place Bitcoin near $37,400.
He added that by the third or fourth quarter of 2026, the realized price could fall further to $53,000 or $54,000, which could lead to a similar 33% crash. bringing Bitcoin closer to $35,000. The analyst said $35,000 represents the most extreme decline he could reasonably see this year based on historical behavior. The accompanying chart also reflects this view by highlighting previous bear market crashes that occurred after the price fell well below the realized price line.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
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