Bitcoin sentiment has taken a drastic turn from bullish optimism above the $100,000 mark to growing fear as the price hovers around $95,000. The long-awaited clear breakout after returning to the $100,000 level failed to materialize, leaving investors questioning the strength of the current uptrend.
Analyst Axel Adler shared insightful data on X, revealing a notable shift in the market’s profit metrics. Average daily profit earned fell from $136 million to $93 million, signaling a cooling phase. Despite this decline, current realized profit levels remain comparable to the highs of the 2021 cycle, underscoring the continued strength and activity of the market.
This data highlights the duality of the current situation: while Bitcoin still shows signs of resilience, the inability to maintain momentum above the $100,000 mark has introduced uncertainty into the market. Analysts and investors are now closely watching the $95,000 level, a critical support zone that could determine whether Bitcoin regains its upward trajectory or faces a deeper correction. The next few days will be crucial as the market seeks clarity and direction in this pivotal phase.
Bitcoin Metrics Establish Market Picture
The current phase of Bitcoin is consolidation, a typical behavior after breaking through important psychological and technical levels. Since Bitcoin first broke the $100,000 mark on December 5, the price has reached an all-time high of around $108,000 before consistently consolidating below the $100,000 threshold. This period of sideways action has introduced mixed feelings, with bulls eager for another leg up and bears eyeing possible corrections.
Analyst Axel Adler shared critical insights on X, highlighting a decline in average profit volume earned from $136 million/day to $93 million/day. Despite this decline, Adler highlights that these numbers remain comparable to the peak of the 2021 cycle, demonstrating robust market activity. Historical data reinforces this outlook, as September 2021 and 2024 both saw mini bullish rallies begin when average daily profits earned were around $15 million, a fraction of current levels.
It’s important to note that Adler’s analysis relies on 30-day moving averages, which smooth out short-term fluctuations but also mean that actual profits made are significantly higher. For example, on November 21, 2024, a month after the rally began at $98,000, investors’ daily profits jumped to $443 million.
These metrics suggest that even as Bitcoin consolidates, underlying market activity remains strong, laying the foundation for a potential bullish continuation. If BTC maintains key levels, another push to test or surpass recent highs could be on the horizon.
BTC technical view: key levels to maintain
Bitcoin is trading at $95,400 after losing key levels including the psychological $100,000 mark, the 200 4-hour MA at $98,290, and the EMA at $96,480. This series of breakouts indicates bearish price action in the near term, raising concerns among investors about the potential for further decline.
However, despite this aggressive selling pressure, some analysts suggest that this could be a move to generate liquidity ahead of a further upward surge. This type of volatility is not uncommon during consolidations near critical levels, especially after a significant rally like the one Bitcoin experienced in December.
The $95,000 mark now serves as a crucial support zone for the bulls. If BTC manages to maintain this level in the coming hours, it could signal the end of this bearish phase and pave the way for a rapid recovery. Reclaiming the $96,480 EMA would be an encouraging first step, while a move above the 4-hour $98,290 EMA would confirm the return to bullish momentum.
Market participants are closely monitoring these levels, as a sustained hold above $95,000 could revive confidence and put Bitcoin back on its upward trajectory. However, failing to maintain this support could lead to deeper corrections in the near term.
Featured image of Dall-E, chart by TradingView
