Key takeaways
- After a long climb to record levels, Bitcoin fell 13% in the space of a month.
- Institutional investors remain stable and supportive of Bitcoin despite its latest volatility.
- Analysts see no clear signs of a long-term pullback.
Bitcoin’s 13% decline over the past month has shaken a market that has spent the better part of the past two years celebrating new cryptocurrency highs, record ETF inflows and a wave of institutional adoption. As ether and solana fall even more sharply, the question dominating investors’ minds is whether this is the start of a prolonged period of decline or simply turmoil in a volatile asset class.
October is historically a great month for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. Bitcoin generated an average gain of 20% during this month, from 2013 to 2024. This is why Bitcoin traders have come to colloquially call this month “Uptober”. 2025 was a completely different story. Between October 6 and November 6, bitcoin fell from $124,000 to $101,000, falling below the psychological threshold of $100,000 twice last week. In recent days, it has risen to $106,000.
Analysts cite a wide range of macroeconomic factors and market dynamics as driving the selloff. Tough talk from central bankers and fading hopes for short-term rate cuts have pushed investors out of risky assets such as cryptocurrencies, while renewed geopolitical and trade tensions have further soured sentiment.
But more importantly, in the face of Bitcoin’s sharp fall, as prices fell, leveraged traders – who use borrowed money to finance their trades – had to unwind their positions, triggering liquidations that worsened the sell-off. Meanwhile, other long-time investors took profits, accelerating the pullback.
Macro Forces Trigger Bitcoin Selloff
Eliézer Ndinga, head of research at 21Shares, attributes the start of the sell-off to US President Donald Trump’s threat last month to impose a 100% tariff on rare earth minerals from China. Because this comment came just minutes after US markets closed on October 10, Ndinga says crypto became the only immediately liquid asset that investors could sell to hedge against macro risk. He says “the fundamentals are still strong” and that the episode should be considered short-term.
“Approximately $19 billion in liquidations flooded the exchanges in less than 24 hours, triggering a severe liquidity crisis and widespread risk aversion,” said Dovile Silenskyte, director of digital assets research at WisdomTree. “Since then, the market has digested this shock. »
Matthew Kimmell, digital assets analyst at CoinShares, sees a broader set of pressures. He claims that long-time Bitcoin holders are making profits after half a decade or more of volatility and that a “large cascade of liquidations in mid-October” triggered broader risk aversion. Business demand has also slowed, while “macroeconomic uncertainty is likely weighing on overall risk appetite.”
Is this the end of the crypto rally?
More complicated is whether the pullback marks the start of what traders are calling a “crypto winter.” Bitcoin has gone through three major winters: from December 2013 to January 2015 (where it fell 75%), from December 2017 to December 2018 (down 83%), and from November 2021 to November 2022 (down $73). “In comparison, today’s decline is minor,” says Silenskyte. “Although sentiment has calmed after October’s flash crash, the market structure is much stronger than in previous cycles.”
According to CoinShares’ Kimmell, “if the market continues to follow its historical four-year cycle pattern, the current timeline aligns with where previous bull markets have tended to peak.” » But he also highlights what’s different this time: Leverage appears lower than at previous peaks, macroeconomic expectations are leaning toward looser policy, and altcoins haven’t shown the euphoric “explosion” behavior typical of a true cycle top.
21Shares’ Ndinga believes the past model is fading. He claims that 2025 is “the first year in which the usual pattern of ‘up, big down, long recovery’ has changed,” highlighting the fact that Bitcoin remains above $100,000, with surprisingly subdued volatility nearly two years after the 2024 halving.
Crypto ETF feeds
Amid the sell-off, it appears that a key pillar of cryptocurrency price support remains stable: ETF investors. In October, digital asset ETFs saw $6.4 billion in new money. This marks an increase in inflows compared to September, when crypto assets brought in $5.5 billion.
“Professional investors seem cautious, but they’re not backing off completely,” says CoinShares’ Kimmell. “If they were, we would see a much greater volume of outflows from crypto ETFs.”
“The sell-off was primarily driven by short-term positioning and derivatives unwinds, rather than fundamental changes in conviction,” says WisdomTree’s Silenskyte. “Long-term cohorts continue to resist volatility. This feels more like a cyclical reset in an ongoing institutional adoption phase than the start of another crypto winter.”
21Shares’ Ndinga goes further, arguing that institutional engagement is increasing rather than decreasing: “One of the key elements that convinces us that this turbulence is temporary is that institutional investors, who are long-term holders, have not withdrawn from the market. »
What’s Next for Bitcoin
Whether the market finally enters another crypto winter or is simply warming up after an intense year, Ndinga and Kimmell come to a similar conclusion: Bitcoin behaves less like a speculative niche investment and more like a macro asset sensitive to real returns, liquidity flows, and market risk appetite in every respect in the global financial system.
Kimmell states: “A true crypto winter is typically characterized by continued waves of leverage liquidations, strong FX outflows, large wallet funding activations, declining institutional interest, crypto industry bankruptcies, and a risk-free macroeconomic backdrop. » Instead, he expects Bitcoin to remain “range-bound with periods of volatility linked to macroeconomic data, regulation and market positioning,” while remaining optimistic about the medium-term outlook as monetary conditions ease and institutional participation deepens.
Ndinga considers short-term volatility “healthy” after a long rally and record capital inflows, saying that “as long as BTC maintains above $100,000, the structural upward trend remains intact.”
According to WisdomTree’s Silenskyte, “as liquidity conditions normalize and macro uncertainty subsides, bitcoin could stabilize and retest prior highs. The key variable will be the broader risk environment. Improved sentiment and stable institutional flows could set the stage for a year-end recovery.”
