Bitcoin Sees Moderate Volatility as Investors Await US Election Outcome (Bitfinex)

With the conclusion of the US presidential election just hours away, crypto investors are exercising caution, as evidenced by the low volatility of the Bitcoin options market.

Analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex reported that crypto investors have taken a wait-and-see approach, expressing a lack of market confidence in BTC’s current price movements.

Investors await election results

Crypto analysts generally expected increased volatility in the run-up to the November 5 US presidential election; however, investors seem hesitant to intervene in the market. The options market is facing significant pressure and implied volatility for Bitcoin options is in the 40s.

Bitfinex explained that initial volatility is the implied volatility of options contracts closest to their expiration date. This often indicates the crypto market’s expectations for short-term price fluctuations.

“Another possible interpretation of the current low initial volatility ahead of Election Day is that it could signal a deeper concern for Bitcoin and altcoins, as shown by both the current correction in BTC and the larger corrections seen in altcoins. Additionally, with pending options approval for Bitcoin spot ETFs, any change in sentiment regarding these developments could further influence volatility and trading activity,” the exchange added.

As implied volatility remains suppressed and investors continue to exercise caution, Bitfinex analysts expect the fluctuation pattern to change between November 5 and 8. This forecast is fueled by expectations of a significant price movement during the week, although there is no certainty that the market will move. in a particular direction.

If the market fails to experience expected volatility, Bitfinex says a bigger problem would likely be at play and BTC could experience a much deeper correction.

Trump still in the lead on Polymarket

Multiple predictions of BTC at $100,000 by the end of the year could come to fruition in the coming weeks, depending on the election outcome. The general market consensus remains that a Republican victory by Donald Trump would be bullish for BTC, while a Democratic victory by Kamala Harris could be bearish.

Meanwhile, data from blockchain prediction platform Polymarket shows that Trump’s chances of winning the election are 62.5%, while Harris’s are 37.6%. Data from CoinMarketCap showed BTC trading at $68,628 at the time of writing.