With bullish sentiment returning to the market, Bitcoin is demonstrating renewed upward momentum, allowing it to retest the $94,000 price level last seen in early December 2025. Despite the recent rebound in BTC price, several key indicators are decliningshowing that on-chain activity is moving in a different direction.
Down Cycle Bitcoin VDD Hints at Minimal Coin Movement
The price of Bitcoin is gradually recovering, but its chain action is entering an unusually subtle phase. This divergence is seen in the recent performance of the Bitcoin Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric, which has fallen sharply.
It should be noted that BTC VDD is a method of measuring long-term holder activity similar to BTC Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, but including a valuation component. In other words, it assigns a value based on the price of Bitcoin at the time the UTXO is spent, in addition to the number of days of holding lost.
In this case, VDD is expressed as a ratio to evaluate its speed in relation to its annual average. Furthermore, the ratio between the annual average and the monthly average makes it possible to situate current activity in relation to the annual norm.
After reviewing the BTC VDD metric, market expert and author of CryptoQuant, Darkfost, note that the metric has fallen to historic lows for this market cycle. According to the expert, this change comes after a period of strong distribution of long-term holders which has now decreased considerably.
As the chart shows, the market is now entering a period in which VDD has fallen sharply and is now at extremely low levels compared to its annual average. This trend indicates a huge drop in selling pressure of long-term BTC holders.
With a metric of 0.55, the current VDD is approximately double the annual average. Such levels have been observed several times following significant corrections during the current cycle. Interestingly, this suggests that long-term holders are currently choosing to hold their coins at current price levels.
BTC Uptrend Still Intact
Bitcoin price saw a brief pullback late Tuesday, raising questions about its price stability. Amid this discussion, Milk Road, a crypto and macro researcher, offered ideas in the current price action of BTC, highlighting that the market is still bullish.
The Milk Road target is based on a multi-year ascending channel model. According to the expert, BTC has been moving in the ascending channel since 2022, reaching higher highs and higher lows.
While the recent decline pushed BTC price towards the bottom of the ascending channel, the support line remained strong, leading to a rebound. Following the rebound, Bitcoin formed another higher low, which is the line that keeps the uptrend intact. Therefore, unless BTC drops below this range, the broader trend continues to increase despite the price being stable for months.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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