First, the good news. Bitcoin rose 5% this morning to $65.9k per coin.
That’s it. That’s all the good news about Bitcoin today. Everything else is bad news. The original cryptocurrency lost 50% of its value peak to trough, going from a high of around $125,000 per coin in October 2025 to its low yesterday of $61.3k.
Shares of Strategy, Michael Saylor’s “Bitcoin treasury company” which offers investors exposure to Bitcoin through its shares, fell 17% yesterday and are down 75% from their high last year. At $65.9,000, the price of Bitcoin is now well below the average price Strategy paid to acquire its treasure, which was $76,000. The company’s market capitalization is now billions less than the value of the Bitcoin it holds. During the fourth quarter earnings conference call yesterday, the company said it could cover its entire convertible debt even if Bitcoin lost 90% in value, and that it had enough cash to meet its dividends for the next two and a half years.
The reason why Bitcoin is in decline? Whales are selling, according to Jefferies analyst Andrew Moss. “Large BTC holders are selling weak,” he told clients in a note this morning. “Whales became net sellers over the weekend after accumulating quantities since early January. » Here is his table:
Additionally, retail investors who had purchased Bitcoin through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offered by traditional financial platforms are also selling. “Spot BTC ETF net outflows during the weeks of January 19 and January 26 marked the second and third largest outflows since inception and were followed by large net outflows on February 4,” it said.
“The all-too-familiar ‘Crypto Winter’ chatter has resurfaced,” he wrote. “We see few bullish indicators to suggest we might be getting closer to the low,” especially since there are no signs that small and mid-sized holders are trying to buy the dip, he said.
His sadness was shared by many.
Yesterday’s performance was Bitcoin’s “worst daily decline since November 2022,” Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank noted this morning. This is the month that Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX crypto exchange collapsed, taking billions of people’s savings with it.
At UBS, Paul Donovan was generally terse: “Crypto is not an asset and is owned by a tiny portion of society. Consumer behavior is unlikely to change due to recent market movements.”
Chevy Cassar, the author of today’s email Milk Road, a respected crypto newsletter, said: “I admit it: it sucks. And it’s going to get worse, he said: “The market is likely to continue to fall, with history telling us that these assets will bottom anywhere over the next 11 months.” »
“The market is close to exhaustion, a peak of fear,” acknowledged Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, which presents itself as “the world’s first regulated digital asset bank,” in an email sent to Fortune.
Here’s a look at the markets before the open in New York this morning:
- S&P500 Futures were up 0.54% this morning. The last session closed down 1.23%.
- THE STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.29% at the start of the session.
- THE FTSE 100 in the UK was up 0.21% at the start of the session.
- Nikkei 225 in Japan was up 0.81%.
- The Chinese CSI 300 was down 0.57%.
- South Korea’s KOSPI was down 1.44%.
- India’s Nifty 50 was up 0.2%.
- Bitcoin decreased to $65.9k.
