Main to remember
Bitcoin faces a critical test in September in the middle of the soft IPC, price entries and rate cutting bets.
“Monthly inflation: as expected.” This is probably the most optimistic macro title we have had for some time.
In addition, it goes perfectly with the tight range of Bitcoin (BTC) just under high -end supply.
For the context, we are t-minus 35 days at FOMC, and the CPI of July not only equaled the impression of June, but also the first row of the call of 2.8%. These are fresh ammunition for the coupé story of September.
Now the question is whether this favorable macro backdrop lights the fuse that ultimately tears the bitcoin from consolidation and discovery of prices.
BTC management is suspended in September
September was historically a draw for Bitcoin. Only 4 of the last 12 September have closed green, red dominating yields. This assessment adds an additional weight to the configuration of this month.
But this year is bigger than history. September opens the land for the fourth quarter. These include the largest upward window for risky assets, thanks to the “expected” QE flooding the fresh liquidity market.
This is where the softer than dead IPC intervenes. The result? The market is now 94.4% prices of a drop of 25 bps at the September FOMC.
Source: Fedwatch
In fact, it is a net decision of 85% pre-ci and well above 57.4% a month ago. The positioning of the market is clearly high, reflecting the front -rate cutting bets in the September FOMC.
Meanwhile, the feeling of the market is also supported by Donald Trump’s comments according to which the prices have not led inflation. This, associated with an increase of 273% in July, price entries at 25 billion dollars, strengthen the biases of the servants.
Overall, the Soft CPI Plus Record Cash Tariff feeds a risk configuration for September. If the Fed follows, could Bitcoin catch a rear liquidity wind towards the fourth quarter?
Bitcoin in the last quarter
On average, Bitcoin displays 85.42% of yields in the fourth quarter, cementing it as the most optimistic quarter compared to the combined Q1-Q3.
Technically, if Bitcoin holds the care of the beach in the liquidity set from $ 120,000 to $ 125,000 in the third quarter, it sets up a favorable structural base for a fourth quarter of probability.
From the point of view of modeling, using a more “conservative” projection of 30 to 40% of the increase in the current Bitcoin level of $ 120,000, the target zone of implicit end of year is at $ 156,000 at $ 168,000.
Source: tradingView (BTC / USDT)
In the end, many depends on how September takes place.
The market is in a “wait” position, but with the printing of sweet CPI, liquidity is leaning on the side of the bull, which makes the current Bitcoin chop a potential ideal point for gains in fourth quarter.
