As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to underperform gold and major stock indices, investors are increasingly wondering if this cycle is playing out differently than expected. In a new interview with analyst Benjamin Cowen, we examine why Bitcoin is lagging traditional markets and why the current setup may look strikingly similar to 2019.
Cowen points out that while stocks and gold are reacting positively to expectations of future monetary easing, Bitcoin appears much more sensitive to actual liquidity conditions rather than optimism alone.
This distinction, he explains, helps clarify why BTC has struggled to gain momentum even as broader markets have advanced. According to Cowen, Bitcoin often requires a clearer macroeconomic catalyst before it can outperform, and that catalyst may not be in place yet.
A key theme of the discussion is feeling. Unlike previous cycle peaks characterized by widespread enthusiasm and retail speculation, this market has been marked by relative apathy.
Cowen explains why it is unusual for Bitcoin to peak in a low-attention environment and how this difference could shape the path forward over the next couple of years.
The conversation also addresses the debate over the four-year cycle. While many commentators argue that Bitcoin’s historical cycle framework is no longer relevant, Cowen presents data suggesting that broader market cycles, not just crypto-specific narratives, still play an important role.
It explains why macroeconomic headwinds, including labor market trends and restrictive financial conditions, could continue to weigh on Bitcoin through 2026, even if short-term rebounds occur along the way.
Rather than focusing on exact price targets, the interview focuses on process rather than forecasting; how investors can think about cycles, risk and patience in an environment where easy liquidity is not guaranteed. Cowen also briefly explains what this means for altcoins and why expectations for rapid turnovers may be misplaced.
Watch the full interview on the Cointelegraph YouTube channel to hear Cowen’s full reasoning, his charts, and the deeper macroeconomic context behind his outlook.
