BSC Fees Hit Multi-Month Low as History Signals Bitcoin Rebound Ahead

The slowdown in on-chain activity echoes a similar lull last summer, which occurred just before a huge rebound in Bitcoin.

Total fees paid on Binance Smart Chain (BSC) recently fell to around $593,000, marking the lowest cost of using the network since at least August 2025.

This collapse in transaction activity on one of crypto’s busiest highways revives memories of a similar demand drought last summer that immediately preceded a 95% rally in Bitcoin (BTC).

A silent market sends a historic signal

Blockchain fees are the clearest measure of user demand, representing what people pay to move tokens or use decentralized applications. When fees drop sharply, it signals a reduction in network congestion and a decrease in speculative interest.

According to data from analyst Amr Taha, on February 23, BSC fees fell to $593,000, which is well below the low of $1.07 million recorded on August 7, 2025. At that time, Bitcoin was trading at almost $55,000 and, according to Taha, the drop in fees then helped form a major low before the asset embarked on a rally that saw its price rise by more than 95%.

The on-chain watcher also reported a sharp decline in market capitalization realized by short-term holders of Bitcoin, which fell to around $386 billion on February 24, well below the previous low of $440 billion recorded on April 8, 2025.

Historically, similar contractions have coincided with strong phases of capitulation that preceded rebounds, including the move that took BTC from around $78,000 to over $108,000 after the April 2025 low.

Derivatives and the path to recovery

Although the decline in spot activity calls for caution, the derivatives market is currently undergoing a structural reset that could pave the way for the next evolution. According to XWIN Research Japan, open interest in Bitcoin futures has fallen sharply, reflecting a broad deleveraging phase. Analysts at the institution noted that the recent price decline was accompanied by a decline in open interest, indicating that derivatives-related liquidations and unwinds, rather than aggressive spot sales, drove the decline. This type of reset can stabilize the market, even if it doesn’t immediately signal a surge in demand.

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The structure of the options market further complicates the outlook. Analysis from Coinbase Institutional shows a pronounced negative gamma band concentrated between $60,000 and $70,000. When brokers hold negative gamma, their hedging activity can amplify price movements, meaning a break below $60,000 could accelerate selling.

Despite the cautious tone, some on-chain indicators offer a glimmer of stability, with the Binance Fund Flow ratio remaining low around 0.012, implying limited immediate selling pressure. During the recent decline towards the mid-$60,000 area, the ratio did not increase, meaning there were no one-off panic-driven inflows.

However, as noted by XWIN Research, low capital inflows do not equate to high accumulation, and the medium-term trend in demand indicators has not yet turned decisively upward.

For a lasting bottom to form, stronger point volume support will be essential. As it stands, Bitcoin is trading just above $68,000 at the time of writing, down about 23% over the past month and more than 46% below its all-time high above $126,000.