The market divergence seen in 2025 continues in the 2026 rally.
At the time, the crypto market posted its lowest annual rise since the 2022 bear market. Yet strong sector capital inflows sparked a fundamentals-driven cycle, despite technical weakness.
The 2026 rally builds on this trend. Technically, with a 21% correction so far in the cycle, losses from the previous year clearly persist.
However, the fundamentals-driven rally remains intact, with Ethereum (ETH) at the center of this continued divergence.
Source: TradingView (ETH/USDT)
From a technical perspective, Ethereum continues to trade around the $2,000 level. However, the intraday drop of 1.81% already signals the possibility of a deeper pullback amid continued macroeconomic volatility.
That said, on-chain data shows smart money executing a classic “buy fear” strategy, with Lookonchain reporting a whale buy of 13,450 ETH, building on BitMine’s (BMNR) earlier acquisition of over 50,928 ETH.
With technical weakness coinciding with this accumulation, a key question arises: Is this positioning a fluke, or is smart money acting on information that the rest of the market has not yet priced in, creating a setup that could reinforce Ethereum’s fundamentals-driven momentum?
Catalyst supporting Ethereum’s strength versus Bitcoin
At the macro level, the broader ecosystem illustrates this divergence.
Despite the risk aversion, the total value locked (TVL) increased by 2.10% in the last 24 hours.
At the same time, the RWA sector reached a record of over $26 billion in total asset value, two key growth areas in which Ethereum’s dominance is unmatched.
In this context, JP Morgan’s recent projections regarding the CLARITY Act add a potential catalyst: if the bill is passed by mid-year, the technical and fundamental signals combined could lead to a crypto rally in late 2026.
Source: Token Terminal
Based on this, the broader market now rates a 70% probability that the law will pass, with inflows into key sectors like tokenization and DeFi directly reinforcing Ethereum’s fundamentals-driven momentum.
Simply put, ETH accumulation and high network usage are not random. Instead, investors are strategically positioning themselves for the 2025 divergence to extend into the second half of 2026, with Ethereum at the heart of this move.
This in turn explains why, despite technical weakness and a risk-averse attitude, Ethereum continues to demonstrate strong fundamentals.
If this trend persists, it could pave the way for a breakout against Bitcoin (BTC), with the ETH/BTC pair around the 0.03 level serving as a potential launch pad.
Final summary
- Despite technical weakness and risk aversion, strong accumulation and network usage continue to strengthen Ethereum’s fundamentals-driven momentum.
- The impending CLARITY Act could allow Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin, with the ETH/BTC pair around 0.03 serving as a potential launch pad.
