Key takeaways
Why is LINK likely to fall towards the $15 level?
This level was the lowest of an ascending channel, and the current bearish momentum could bring Chainlink to this key support.
Is recovery possible from $15?
This would depend on Bitcoin and overall market sentiment, but on-chain metrics such as holder accumulation rate showed that holders’ bullish conviction was extremely high.
Even before the stock market crash of October 10, Chainlink (LINK) had shown that the bearish momentum was increasing. The $22 support level from September was retested as resistance during the first week of October.
Source: Ali Charts on X
In an article on X, crypto analyst Ali Martinez showed a LINK price chart explaining why the altcoin is likely to drop to $15 soon. The idea was based on a rising channel.
LINK was heading towards the bottom of the channel at $15, which would likely lead to a strong bullish reaction.
Do onchain metrics support the idea of a Chainlink rally?
Source: Glassnode
The first clue was the constant decline in the balance on LINK exchanges. This decline was not unique to Chainlink.
Even Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have seen their exchange balances decline, bringing them back to levels not seen in years.
This was a bullish sign for the market, as the tokens coming out of the exchange show that they were likely being accumulated.
Accumulation reaches record levels
Source: Glassnode
The holder accumulation ratio reached an all-time high of 98.9%. This meant that almost all addresses whose balances changed increased their LINK positions.
This level of synchronized accumulation suggested a strong market-wide accumulation trend, often preceding major bullish moves.
Additionally, Martinez forecast a potential extension towards $46 (1.272 Fibonacci) if channel support holds and accumulation persists.
Source: Glassnode
Additionally, the percentage of supply held by the top 1% of addresses has also increased steadily, from around 73% at the end of 2024 to almost 80% in October 2025.
This showed strong conviction from larger holders to continue adding to their holdings even though the price has pulled back over the past six weeks.
