CoinFund President Christopher Perkins is betting that 2026 will be defined less by shiny new token narratives than by balance sheets, regulated product launches and the messy maturation of crypto in an industry that buys, sells and consolidates. In a December 31 thread on X, Perkins presented seven predictions:
#1 Crypto “M&A Summer” and a $25 Billion Deal Year
Perkins’ first and strongest call: 2026 will be “the year of crypto M&A.” He pegged M&A activity in 2025 at about $8.6 billion in total deal value, then predicted 2026 would “reach $25 billion,” describing it as a sea change rather than a modest uptick.
He outlined the consolidation push on several fronts, from “DAT/Labs/Foundation consolidation” to “DAT vs DAT (mNAV calculation),” as well as a two-way bridge between traditional finance and crypto. The direction of travel, he says, is simple: TradFi companies are trying to catch up and crypto companies are buying their way into regulated capacities.
“TradFi → Crypto (ugh, I’m behind and need to catch up),” he wrote. “Crypto (DAT, Exchanges) → TradFi (we also need operating companies, securities capabilities and licensing!).” He also cited the “Asia → US” theme, saying a clearer regulatory environment would attract international players to the US market.
“2021 was the summer of the stablecoin; 2026 will be the summer of mergers and acquisitions,” concluded Perkins.
#2 Stablecoins at $600 billion
Perkins’ second prediction is a doubling of the stablecoin market cap, “exceeding $600 billion (2x).” His reasoning is based less on retail usage and more on transmitter economics and the plumbing of the market.
“For every stablecoin, someone earns net interest income. Who wouldn’t want that?” he wrote. “As markets tokenize, you will need stablecoins to buy and sell them. Watch the growth accelerate in 2026.”
The subtext is that stablecoins become the default settlement asset for on-chain financial activity – particularly if more real-world assets and market structures migrate on-chain – while issuer incentives remain strong.
#3 Crypto hack worth more than $2 billion as a political catalyst
Perkins also predicts a major security event: “A major hack worth more than $2 billion will shake trust, lead to withdrawal, and catalyze policy changes. » He highlighted what he described as worsening trends, citing $3.4 billion in hacks in 2025, “a 51% increase,” then argued that the attack surface increases as tokenization and stablecoins bring “hundreds of billions more” onto the chain.
He went further than the usual call for better security practices, referencing a provocative historical reference as a possible policy direction. “It may be time for another policy change, such as letters of marque and retaliation,” he wrote. “I’m just saying…” Consequence: if losses increase, the political response could become more aggressive – and less abstract.
#4 Review of regulated derivatives
Regarding market structure, Perkins predicted that U.S. crypto derivatives would return “to the U.S. in a big way,” with a “big battle for market share” as “new players enter the space.” Although he expects the U.S. share of global derivatives volume to triple, he argued that CME’s share of U.S. crypto futures could decline amid broader competition.
His thesis is rooted in regulatory dynamics and institutional business behavior. “Now that the regulatory path is clear, there will be a proliferation of new regulated futures products launched in the United States,” Perkins wrote. “As crypto enters its institutional era, the demand will be off the charts as basic trading will be their first step. This will bring alts back to life.”
#5 No bill on market structure
It’s not all acceleration. Perkins’ fifth prediction: A comprehensive market structure bill “will not pass,” blaming the gravity of the political calendar. “Sorry guys, this one is going to be too hard. Midterms are going to take the oxygen out of the room,” he wrote.
#6 New ATHs for Bitcoin and ETH
Despite this, he still expects new highs in the majors, calling for bitcoin at $150,000 and ether above $5,000. “BTC and $ETH will reach ATHs,” Perkins wrote. “BTC hits $150,000; ETH exceeds $5,000. Institutional adoption makes this possible.”
#7 NFTs are coming back, but not in Jpeg format
Finally, Perkins plans a revival of the NFT with a change in format. “NFTs will make a comeback, but version 2.0 will not be in JPEG format,” he wrote, carving out an exception for CryptoPunks while dismissing a broader JPEG-led resurgence. Instead, he expects “non-fungible financial tokens,” potentially linked to “individualized, tokenized security/yield vaults.”
At press time, the total crypto market capitalization stood at $2.94 trillion.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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