During a period marked by extraordinary polarization, market players find themselves torn between two opposite camps: one predicting firmly that the current decline is only a configuration for an imminent Altcoin rally, and the other resolved that the broader Bull Run has already reached its conclusion. In an article on X, Koreshh Khaneghah, founder of Zero Complexity Trading, said: “At the moment, it is the most divided chronology that I have ever seen. The Bulls believe that this is the last decline before a season. Bears think Bull Run is over. »»
According to Khaneghah, “it becomes more and more difficult to” predict “the stages of the cycle as the crypto matures.” It highlights the developments that did not appear in the previous cycles, including a transition from a traditional Alts season to a same season, Ethereum (ETH) still not breaking its peaks of all time, and Bitcoin (BTC) exceeding its ATH and exceeding $ 100,000 (an absent result in previous cycles)
Two scenarios for the crypto
1. This cycle is different from others
Khaneghah highlights an increasing institutional involvement – a clearly absent element on the previous bull markets. He quotes data suggesting that BlackRock currently has nearly $ 52 billion in BTC (via Arkham). In his opinion, this considerably stimulates the long -term purchase pressure for Bitcoin, leading to potentially less deep withdrawals, because “institutions will continue to buy”.
Due to the increased institutional interest, Khaneghah expects the domination of the BTC to continue to rise. This dynamic could change the way in which capital turns into altcoins: “In this cycle, altcoins have seen the dispersion of capital. This means that more assets are on the market and liquidity is distributed in several sectors, preventing a sector from pumping hard. »»
He contrasts the same market with DEFI. During the previous cycle, the same market was approximately half the size of DEFI. In this cycle, the market capitalization of the same has equaled that of Defi.
If this scenario is located, Khaneghah thinks that BTC will remain the focal point for major movements while altcoins experience more fragmented and microofiness races. “This means that previous bull game books will not apply and that you just have to exchange rotations,” he notes.
2. The Bull Run is not finished
Khaneghah observes that the BTC only worked 1.6x above the summits of the previous cycle before removing, calling it “not what a normal blowing bubble”. From a historic point of view, the BTC frequently traced 40 to 50% compared to its ATT before the climb above. In the current cycle, the BTC only retraced 26% compared to its peak, suggesting the possibility of increasing if the past models are repeated.
According to many analysts, a common trigger managed by bulls is that the ETH exceeds its previous cycle – something that does not happen, since the ETH has not yet violated $ 4,000. Khaneghah postulates that this discrepancy could indicate a delayed seasonal season season and a much longer than expected overall cycle.
For Altcoins to take up the momentum, Khaneghah considers the ETH / BTC pair as a critical indicator. A background in ETH / BTC, combined with a rotation of the same capital in other sectors of public services such as DEFI and RWA (real active assets), could revive Altcoin rallies.
Khaneghah concludes that traders do not need to be obsessed with the bull or bear: “If you are a merchant, you do not have to marry a bias or to engage in scenario 1 or 2.. If the domination of the BTC continues, exchange BTC by the force of desire and the weakness of the weakness. -If alts start at low, move the capital there and buy the strongest parts. »»
At the time of the press, BTC exchanged $ 81,786.
