The crypto could see some volatility in the immediate future. There are many things that indirectly affect our markets behind the scenes and in motion.
Japan, American government, Market structure issues for alternatives, Stocks and commodities are rising, but crypto is not. More volatility could be ahead due to three of these important factors. Today we delve deeper into them. And by the way, we will also look at some important factors that are bullish for the market right after this one.
Possible US government shutdown again
Prediction Markets like Kalshi and Polymarket predict that there is a 77-80% chance that the US government will shut down again on Saturday. In case you haven’t been watching, ICE, the immigration enforcement agency in the United States, has been involved in numerous confrontations with the public, particularly in the US city of Minneapolis, Minnesota. The shooting of a protesting nurse there sparks many new controversies.
There is now a 76% chance that the US government will be able to shut down by Friday.
Not good for $BTC and others. pic.twitter.com/zD7ZIOFv0M
– Ted (@TedPillows) January 27, 2026
Senate Democrats are blocking passage of a funding bill that funds the operations of ICE and the Department of Homeland Security because of their positions against ICE’s actions. If they don’t reach an agreement, the government will shut down again. And it’s bad for our markets in general. Last time, gold and silver held up well, and we’ll talk about that in a second.
𝗖𝗥𝗬𝗣𝗧𝗢 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗞𝗘𝗧𝗦 𝗖𝗢𝗨𝗟𝗗 𝗗𝗥𝗢𝗣 𝗔𝗦 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗨𝗦 𝗚𝗢𝗩𝗘𝗥𝗡𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧 𝗥𝗜𝗦𝗞𝗦 𝗦𝗛𝗨𝗧𝗧𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗗𝗢𝗪𝗡 𝗕𝗬 𝗦𝗔𝗧𝗨𝗥𝗗𝗔𝗬 🚨
The probability of a shutdown in the United States has just reached 80% (Polymarket & Kalshi).
It’s not just politics, it could heavily affect crypto… pic.twitter.com/wPO5QSvSlG
– Open4profit (@open4profit) January 27, 2026
But BTC, ETH and alts have done terribly with Bitcoin and ETH down around 33% and alts even more. It is important to remember that possible does not mean absolutely or 100%. Still, you need to understand that this could happen and what type of volatility could occur in our markets if it happened.
Shutdowns have occurred 3 times out of the last 5 times it was possible. So we can avoid this. As you can see in this tweet, there are some options to avoid this without full agreement on the current bill as written. No one knows, but prepare for the volatility leading up to this decision Friday and Saturday and what could happen early next week, depending on whether the sides reach a deal or not.
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN MAY NOT HAPPEN
Timer: January 31 – 4 days remaining.
Why this might not happen:
1. Historical model
From 2013 to 2023: 5 shutdown attempts, of which only 3 actually took place. 60% success rate on last minute offers
2. Economic pressure
One week stop… pic.twitter.com/CCVGLrXmYC
– SGX (@sgxcrypto) January 27, 2026
Lack of market liquidity
Even though QT, which removes liquidity from the market, ended in early December, we did not see the influx of liquidity into the market that we expected. This is especially true for the retail market. Crypto ETFs are still crushing and receiving A LOT of inflow. And while that’s good for us in general, it also sucks up a lot of the market’s total liquidity. They have WAY more money than retail.
CryptoCrypto Ghost | Daily Market Feed
January 27
⸻
🟠 Cryptocurrencies and ETFs Landscape
US-based ETFs saw widespread positive inflows on January 26.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a five-day streak of net outflows, recording approximately $6.8 million in net inflows.Altcoin-related ETFs have shown…
-PhantomCrypto (@PhantomCryptoo) January 27, 2026
This means that the market can segregate even more severely between the 3 categories of Bitcoin, Major Alts and Everyone Else. Bitcoin will do the trick. Most major alternative assets, especially if they are in the top 25 by market capitalization, have ETFs actively investing in them. Avalanche’s new ETFs Van Eck and SOL, Sui, LINK, ETH and others offer between 1 and 10 ETFs that actively invest in the project on behalf of institutional investors.
AVAX has just found a new audience.
Nasdaq traders can now access #Avalanche via VanEck $VAVX ETF, with staking rewards on a majority of securities.
It’s not just about convenience. It is a cryptographic infrastructure that becomes a financial infrastructure.#AVAX #Crypto #NASDAQ– Deeshant 🔺9000 (@veer_7574) January 27, 2026
So look at this chart from Binance. After some big spikes in November, at $37 and $40 billion per day, the volume has dropped A LOT. It is now in a daily trading range of $5 billion to $17 billion. This therefore represents a drop ranging from a minimum of 50% to 80% depending on the days you look at.
VanEck has just launched the first US spot ETF for Avalanche ($VAVX) on the NASDAQ.
✅ AVAX Direct Exposure + Staking Rewards
✅ 0.20% fee (FREE on the first $500 million until February 28)
✅ Joined BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP in the ETF clubAvalanche is now institutional grade! pic.twitter.com/8zYZfFpaxc
– Trading Aloha (@TradingAloha) January 27, 2026
Retail volume on exchanges is declining. And this corresponds to the decline in interest from retailers. Retail lost confidence during the great sell-off on October 10 and has mostly not yet returned. If retail trading doesn’t return, there won’t be enough buyers to spur a bull market. It’s that simple.
That said, there are great opportunities in the highest quality projects. This is what you should be looking for right now. But ONLY if you have the patience to wait and buy quality.
Gold and Silver
I’m sure you’ve noticed recently that gold and silver are tearing apart. There have been times in recent years when gold and Bitcoin have rallied together when people were looking for assets that avoid too much “market risk.” But this is not the case currently.
BREAKING: TOM LEE: “Gold and silver suck the oxygen out of everything. »
“As long as gold and silver are going up, there is FOMO to buy that instead of crypto.”
“When gold and silver take a break, it would lead to a Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH overvoltage… pic.twitter.com/yr0MO5SJMU
– SwanDesk (@SwanDesk) January 27, 2026
Tom Lee, who runs the most aggressive Ethereum DAT or Digital Asset Treasury co, presents a theory that gold and silver are sucking liquidity and interest out of crypto. The reason is that they are ripping and crypto is not. People are feeling FOMO about not investing in these metals and are diving in now. It’s an interesting theory and there is more activity around gold and specifically silver than there has been in YEARS.
Lee says the fundamentals for BTC and ETH are strong and prices are expected to catch up. And we agree. But prices are currently lagging behind growth and fundamentals. And Lee thinks this interest in precious metals is the reason.
So what do you think? Do you think we will see more unstable times in the future? Or more trading ranges like we saw in January? Let us know with your comments below.
Disclaimer
The information provided by Altcoin Buzz does not constitute financial advice. It is intended for educational, entertainment and informational purposes only. Any opinions or strategies shared are those of the editors/reviewers, and their risk tolerance may differ from yours. We are not responsible for any losses you may incur as a result of investments related to the information provided. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are high-risk assets; therefore, perform thorough due diligence. Copyright Altcoin Buzz Pte Ltd.
