Crypto traders are displaying high levels of fear, and some analysts say this could pave the way for a rebound. According to Santiment, social discussions about Bitcoin are evenly split between bullish and bearish.
Ether, meanwhile, has just over 50% more bullish than bearish comments, but that’s still below its usual volume of positive comments. Santiment added that less than half of social posts on XRP are bullish, calling it one of the “scariest moments of 2025” for the token.
Source: Alernative.me
Source: Alernative.meTrader Fear Fuels Buying Opportunities
Santiment and other data providers point to extreme pessimism in the market. Based on the reports, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index on Thursday gave a score of 15 out of 100, a result described as “extreme fear” and the lowest since March.
Joe Consorti, head of Bitcoin growth at Horizon, said current sentiment reflects the mood of 2022, when Bitcoin was trading around $18,000. The fear is great. Many investors have withdrawn.
😠 Traders’ mood is fading towards crypto, which is good news for the patient.
🟥Bitcoin $BTC: Same bullish/bearish ratio of comments on social networks (significantly lower than usual)
🟨Ethereum $ETH: A little over 50% more bullish vs bearish comments (fewer than usual)
🟦XRP… pic.twitter.com/ZY9RXUxKDK–Santiment (@santimentfeed) November 12, 2025
Crypto Capitulation May Precede Rally
Some market observers see pressure from weak hands as a buying window. According to Santiment, when retail sales peak, the largest holders often absorb the liquidated coins, and prices can then be pushed higher.
Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, argued that sellers are now mostly new buyers who entered within the last year and are making profits, while long-term holders are accumulating more Bitcoin.
This view suggests that the selling pressure could be temporary and that accumulation by committed holders could cause a rebound.
Completely wild.
F&G Index at $18,000 → 20
F&G Index at $100,000 → 20 pic.twitter.com/SNS1bqhx68–Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti) November 12, 2025
Social atmosphere and on-chain signals
Public opinion is only part of the picture. Based on reports from Glassnode and others, key on-chain metrics show similar trends to past drawdowns, but the supply held by long-term addresses remains significant.
October added to this difficult backdrop after ending with the biggest stock market sell-off since the pandemic, wiping out billions of dollars in a matter of hours.
Markets were also rattled by US President Donald Trump’s comments on 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, which reignited global trade fears and fueled volatility.
Bitcoin trading at $103,656 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView
Technical warnings and seasonal tailwinds
Technically, Bitcoin recently posted its fourth “death cross,” a bearish signal that has already been followed by prolonged weakness. This is a clear warning. But historical seasonal data remains positive for the end of the year.
Data from Coinglass shows that Bitcoin has finished six of the last eight Decembers higher, with gains ranging from 8% to 45%. So while caution is reasonable given current signals, there is a statistical trend that traders will be watching as the year ends.
What traders could expect next
Based on a mix of sour sentiment, on-chain buyer behavior and historical seasonality, the market could see rapid change if the retail capitulation slows and larger players step in. This development may seem sudden. It could also take place gradually, depending on macroeconomic news and liquidity flows.
For now, the mood is rather gloomy and the numbers are gloomy for crypto. Still, a change in the distribution of coin holders could be the trigger for a change in price action before the end of the year.
Featured Image from Meta, Chart from TradingView
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