A monthly review of the market by Crypto Exchange listed on the Stock Exchange Exchange shows that if the cryptography market has contracted, it seems to be preparing for a better quarter.
According to the monthly prospects of April 15 of Coinbase for institutional investors, the Altcoin market capitalization decreased by 41% compared to the summits of 1.6 billion of dollars from December 2024 to $ 950 billion in mid-April. BTC Tools data show that this metric affected a hollow of $ 906.9 billion on April 9 and amounted to $ 976.9 billion at the time of writing.
The funding for venture capital in crypto projects would have decreased by 50% to 60% from 2021 to 22. In the report, the world research manager David Duong stressed that a new cryptographic winter could be on our doors.
“Several convergent signals can point to the start of a new” winter of cryptography “, because an extreme negative feeling took place due to the start of world prices and the additional climbing potential,” he said.
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Macroeconomic misfortunes cause cryptographic disorders
The report notes that the interests of lower venture capital “considerably limit the integration of new capital in the ecosystem”, which is felt mainly in the Altcoin sector. The cause of this, according to Duong, is the current macroeconomic environment:
“All these structural pressures arise from the uncertainty of the wider macro environment, where traditional risk assets have been confronted with opposite winds from budgetary tightening and pricing policies, contributing to paralysis in investment decision -making.”
According to the researchers of Coinbase, these facts led to “difficult cyclic prospects for the space of digital assets” and justify continuous caution in the next four to six weeks. However, the author of the report said that the market is likely to change the directions explosively:
“When the feeling is finally reset, it probably occurs fairly quickly and we remain constructive for the second half of 2025.”
Duong has cited certain measures to indicate when the cryptography market moves between the phases of the bull and bears market, including the performance adjusted to the risk and the 200 -day mobile average.
Another metric was Bitcoin (BTC) Z-SCORE, which compares the market value and the value achieved to identify the conditions of overcap and occurrence. A Z-SCORE shows how unusual the current prices are compared to historical data.
Performance adjusted to the risk of Bitcoin. Source: Jamming
This metric “naturally explains the greatest volatility in crypto”, but it is also slow to react. This metric tends to generate few signals in stable markets. The Coinbase model, based on it, determined that the Haussier market ended at the end of February but has since judged the neutral market.
Bitcoin Z-Z-Coinbase model. Source: Jamming
Instead, Coinbase analyst suggested that the 200 -day mobile average is a better indicator to determine market trends. It elegant short -term noise while being relevant by considering the last 200 days of market data.
The Coinbase Coinbase Coinbase Mobile Bitcoin model. Source: Jamming
The report also indicates that the wider market trend in the management market by management in which bitcoin moves is increasingly reliable. Indeed, the crypto is developing in new sectors with decentralized finances (DEFI), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (backdrop), artificial intelligence agents, and even more, all with particular market forces independent of Bitcoin.
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Are we on a lower market?
Duong stresses that the 200 -day mobile average suggests that the recent drop in bitcoin moved it to the drop -down market at the end of March. However, the application of the same model at the Coin50 Coinbase index based on the 50 best cryptographic active ingredients has been showing a lower market since the end of February.
The 200 -day Mobile Mobile Coinbase model applied to the Coin50 index. Source: Jamming
Recent reports have indicated that Bitcoin shows increasing resilience with macroeconomic opposite winds compared to traditional financial markets. “Bitcoin’s decline was relatively modest, revisiting the price levels of the American electoral period,” according to Wintermute.
Duong sees Bitcoin becoming less an indicator of generalized cryptography following this trend. He wrote:
“While the role of Bitcoin as a” value store “continues to grow, we believe that a holistic assessment of the global market activity of the crypto will be necessary to better define the markets of bulls and bears for the asset class.”
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