If you’re not sure where crypto currently stands, you’re not alone. 1 Even seasoned analysts have difficulty interpreting mixed market signals. Some measurements strongly suggest that a bottom has formed. However, others suggest that a deeper correction is still on the cards. Today I’m going to simplify the noise. I will only focus on the most historically reliable indicators.
So I’m going to break down the hidden signals suggesting crypto could be forming a bottom. I will also point out red flags that indicate potential weakness. In the end, you’ll know if it’s true healing…or a break from further pain.
What is the current market situation?
The crypto market is currently showing clear weakness. Prices are not stable. Volatility increased across major assets. Bitcoin even risks a possible decline towards the $84,000 level in the event of a breakdown of support. This means we are back to the price of 1 year ago.
The correction is canceled. The price reaches 85,000 to 82,000 without pause. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/JsgcmP1yLT
– DIAMOND HANDS 🧊 (@TamngwaB) November 14, 2025
Bullish indicators
This comes at a strange time. Almost all recent news has been optimistic. The Fed mentioned that QT would end in early December. We have also witnessed the end of the US government shutdown.
December 1: Fed stops draining and QT ends.
The last and only time this happened was in September 2019.
The crypto consolidated then was on the verge of tearing apart.
Then COVID ruined everything.
We never got to see this movement completed.
The second round begins in 16 days.
And almost no one logs in… pic.twitter.com/i8tbd38pQm
–Dan Gambardello (@dangambardello) November 15, 2025
Both support risky assets, but crypto has yet to take this into account. This creates a bullish setup, even though prices are currently weak. At the same time, the supply of stablecoins on exchanges and off-chain wallets remains high. This means buyers could move in quickly once confidence improves. Yet prices continue to fall.
Be aware that the end of QT does not automatically mean a big increase in liquidity. Stopping the tightening is not the same as injecting additional liquidity or QE. However, if these two factors are more widely accepted by investors, there could still be hidden advantages. The market has yet to fully reflect these tailwinds. Therefore, the market may not have priced this in yet.
It is a misconception that QT will end on December 1st.
Yes, they end QT, but that doesn’t automatically translate into QE.
To stop means to no longer withdraw. That doesn’t mean put in there.
– KNXLY (@kdtrader1999) November 13, 2025
So what’s going on?
The answer lies in market structure. Liquidity is thin. Large holders move carefully. Many traders are overleveraged, which creates sharp movements when financing changes. Lots of $BTC OG is selling. At the same time, macroeconomic pressure remains. Rates remain high and risky assets are under pressure. This creates a gap between sentiment and price.
Investors expect good news to push the market higher, but the data reveals stress beneath the surface. When bullish results meet low liquidity, prices can fall quickly. This is the phase where the market eliminates excess risk before a true trend can form. So let’s take a closer look at some of these indicators.
More indicators
It therefore seems that in the short term, the decline is over. However, in the long run, it depends on what Trump does. Nothing about Trump’s policies is bearish in the short term. Right now, his shares are decidedly bullish on Bitcoin’s multi-year trajectory.
- He keeps saying that he will make the United States the crypto capital of the world. His administration has implemented numerous crypto-friendly laws.
- The SEC has undergone serious reform. Paul Atkins is the new president of the SEC. It is considered to have a more pro-crypto and deregulation orientation.
- There is the Genius Act. This gives stablecoin issuers a defined regulatory framework. This reduces some of the legal uncertainty that has slowed broader institutional adoption.
- Trump has banned the development of federal CBDCs. This anti-CBDC policy pushes users towards private digital assets.
- Many crypto-related ETFs are waiting to be approved by the SEC.
President Trump’s crypto czar says the United States is “one step closer” to becoming the crypto capital of the world.
The message is clear, the new digital gold rush is about to start on American soil. pic.twitter.com/gcHmp9moAF
— MANDO CT 🇮🇪 🇦🇪 🇬🇧 (@XMaximist) November 12, 2025
However, he also made sure to get rich in crypto. There were of course the memecoins $TRUMP and $MELANIA. This extracted a lot of liquidity from the market. There is also the World Liberty Financial platform, with massive influence from the Trump family.
Nonetheless, the general crypto market has not seen much upside. If you compare where altcoins were at the start of his presidency and where they are now, it’s scary. Most alts lost between 50% and 75% or more.
🇺🇸 Trump’s first day in office vs today
• $LINK : $24 → $14
• $RENDERED : $7.4 → $2.1
• $NEAR : $5.75 → $2.40
• $SUI : $5 → $1.7
• $INJ : $23 → $7
• $HBAR : $0.34 → $0.15
• $SEI : $0.34 → $0.16
• $KAS : $0.15 → $0.04
• $S : $0.5 → $0.13 pic.twitter.com/gFSXidkLzj– Our Crypto Talk (@ourcryptotalk) November 14, 2025
Mixed results
The results are mixed when looking at on-chain data. For example,
1. $BTC indicators suggest $BTC is undervalued below $94,000.
📊 Over the last 3 months, there has been a clear break in correlation between crypto and stocks. Here are the main sector returns since August 11:
🥇 Gold: +21%
🏦 S&P 500: +7%
🪙Bitcoin: -15%🧐 Based on 4 years of close correlation, $BTC is undoubtedly undervalued. pic.twitter.com/gIWiJPZpc5
–Santiment (@santimentfeed) November 12, 2025
2. For miners, mining is not profitable below $88,000. The breakeven point at $88,000 is structurally bullish for Bitcoin. He reports:
- strong competition from miners
- reduced selling pressure,
- an increased incentive to accumulate,
- and a historically bullish pattern after periods of miner stress.
The only bearish angle is the short-term capitulation of miners. This usually resolves into upward movements.
3. Transaction metrics suggest massive capitulation of $BTC (only). In the short term, it is slightly bearish because: capitulation = final selling pressure. However, in the long term this is strongly bullish: capitulation = cycle reset. Surrender is tantamount to clearing out order books. After that, even small purchases can drive the price up aggressively.
Graphics
Now is also a good time to take a closer look at some charts. Here is the first.
Liquidation data
Most of the time, the long liquidation of Bitcoin is higher than that of $ETH. However, in recent days we have seen long liquidations of $BTC and short liquidations of $ETH. This means that the $ETH bears are getting tired. This is a classic case where the discharge is complete.
Volume of criminals
The volume of perpetual securities has not increased since the decline. This means bears are not selling short. In other words, bears are not bearish at this point.
Source: Coinglass
Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index
There is an ongoing negative premium on Coinbase. This means that US investors (including institutions) are selling more than they are buying. This puts downward pressure on the price of $BTC. So, in the short term, it’s bearish. However, let’s look at the long-term significance. Once US sellers are exhausted, negative premiums often become positive. This change has historically marked local troughs and phases of strong recovery.
Source: Coinglass
Bitcoin MVRV Z – Score
MVRV shows the profit of the average BTC holder.
Right now it’s around 1.8, not 1.5. It is easier for the indicator to fall from 1.8 → 1.5 than to rise from 1.8 → 2.4. The market could therefore fall further before becoming strongly bullish again. So in the short and medium term, it is a bearish bias. However, in the long term, this is a healthy or bullish setup.
Source: Coinglass
Thus, most indicators are bearish in the short term. However, in the long term, these same indicators are bullish. In other words, yes, the pain may increase. However, towards the end of the year and during the first quarter of 2026, confidence could improve.
What do you think: is this a bear market? Or is there still a fight between the bulls? Let me know in the comments and join our discussions on X and Discord.
Disclaimer
The information discussed by Altcoin Buzz does not constitute financial advice. This is for educational, entertainment and informational purposes only. All information or strategies are thoughts and opinions relevant to the author/reviewer’s accepted levels of risk tolerance, and their risk tolerance may be different from yours.
We are not responsible for any losses you may incur as a result of any investment directly or indirectly related to the information provided. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are high-risk investments, so please do your due diligence.
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